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Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 52
2018-10-12 10:54:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 120854 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 52 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 300 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018 ...SERGIO WEAKENING AS IT QUICKLY APPROACHES THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE PENINSULA AND THE NORTHWESTERN MEXICO STATE OF SONORA... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.1N 113.8W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Sergio. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 113.8 West. Sergio is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will make landfall in the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur later this morning and then move over mainland northwestern Mexico by Friday evening. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening should continue today, but Sergio is still forecast to reach the central Baja California peninsula as a tropical storm, then weaken to a tropical depression, and degenerate into a remnant low while moving over the the northwestern Mexico state of Sonora. Dissipation should occur Saturday night or Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over Sonora and the central peninsula of Baja California through Friday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous terrain. Moisture from Sergio will affect the United States, with total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico toward the southern Plains through Saturday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula later tonight, and these conditions will spread to the east coast of the peninsula tonight or early Friday. Gusty winds could reach the coast of mainland Mexico late Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will affect much of the Baja California peninsula for the next day or two, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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