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Tropical Storm Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-09-15 04:33:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 150233 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 Teddy is displaying some mixed signals this evening. On one hand, satellite imagery shows an improving cloud pattern, with increasing central convection and a large curved band on the southern side of the circulation. The latest TAFB/SAB Dvorak estimates have increased to 55 kt on this basis. Scatterometer data, surprisingly, only shows 35-40 kt. The initial wind speed remains 45 kt as a blend of that data, assuming the typical undersampling from ASCAT, but there is a fair bit of uncertainty in the current wind speed. Teddy should have several days in a low or moderate shear environment over warm waters to intensify. All guidance responds to this forcing by showing Teddy near major hurricane strength in a few days, with the biggest disagreement being how fast it gets there. The new forecast is similar to the previous one, leaning toward the NOAA corrected-consensus guidance HCCA. Teddy is moving about the same as before, or 280/11 kt. No substantial changes were made to the forecast track with the storm in a seemingly stable steering current provided by a deep-layer ridge over the central Atlantic. Teddy should turn west-northwestward overnight and then northwestward on Wednesday through the end of the forecast while it moves on the southwestern flank of the ridge. Model guidance is in excellent agreement, with only some minor speed differences. The NHC track prediction is basically on top of the previous one and the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 13.2N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 13.8N 46.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 14.8N 48.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 15.9N 49.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 17.3N 51.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 18.5N 52.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 19.9N 54.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 22.6N 56.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 25.5N 60.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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