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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-11-15 03:36:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 150236 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020 Theta remains a highly sheared but resilient tropical cyclone with little change in its satellite appearance since the previous advisory. A persistent band of deep convection to the southeast of Theta remains within about 60 n mi of the storm center, despite a hostile environment characterized by dry mid-level air and 40-50 kt of northerly shear. Unfortunately, several scatterometer passes this evening missed the core of the cyclone. Since the satellite presentation is generally unchanged from earlier today, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt, which is consistent with a T2.5 Dvorak classification received from TAFB. Strong northerly shear and continued dry air entrainment will eventually take a toll on Theta, but recent satellite trends and the latest GFS simulated satellite imagery suggest that the cyclone could remain tropical a little longer than previously forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast keeps Theta as a 35-kt tropical storm at 12 h before weakening it into a remnant low by 24 h. This follows the consensus of the latest intensity guidance. Thereafter, continued weakening is expected through its dissipation early next week. Theta is still moving eastward at around 4 kt. The cyclone should begin turning northeastward later today, and then accelerate north-northeastward on Monday as the shallow remnant low is steered by a low-level ridge centered over northwestern Africa. The remains of Theta are forecast to open up into a trough and dissipate by 60 h ahead of an approaching cold front over the northeastern Atlantic. The latest NHC track forecast is adjusted slightly to the left of the previous one, which generally follows the latest track consensus aids. On the forecast track, the remnant low of Theta is expected to pass near the island of Madeira late Sunday night or early Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 31.7N 18.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 31.9N 18.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 32.6N 17.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1200Z 34.2N 17.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z 36.7N 15.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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