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Tropical Storm ULIKA Forecast Discussion Number 13
2016-09-29 16:56:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 291456 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192016 800 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016 Ulika's cloud pattern continues to have a sheared appearance this morning, with only a small area of bursting deep convection to the east of the estimated low-level center location. The initial intensity is set at 40 kt, which is a blend of Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB. A very hostile dynamic environment lies ahead of Ulika, with westerly shear forecast to increase to 40-50 kt in 36 hours. Given such unfavorable conditions, the system should degenerate into a remnant low by the weekend, or sooner. The cyclone has turned toward the northwest, and the initial motion is estimated to be around 320/6 kt. The flow on the southern side of a weak low- to mid-level ridge should cause Ulika to turn toward the west-northwest and then west over the next couple of days. The official track forecast is between the latest GFS and ECMWF tracks and only a little bit north of the previous NHC forecast. The next advisory on Ulika will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 16.7N 139.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 17.3N 140.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 17.8N 141.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 18.0N 143.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/1200Z 18.0N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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