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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-10-21 22:36:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 212036 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 Vicente's cloud pattern has become less organized today, with the low-level center becoming exposed near the northeastern edge of a ragged-looking area of deep convection. Data from a recent scatterometer overpass indicated that the maximum winds have decreased to near 35 kt. North-northeasterly vertical wind shear should prevent strengthening of the system and, in fact, the global models show the cyclone dissipating in a couple of days. The official forecast shows, perhaps generously, Vicente weakening to a depression in 1-2 days and is similar to the latest intensity model consensus. Obviously, the system could weaken sooner than shown here. The storm has been moving just slightly south of due west, or 260/9 kt. Vicente is expected to move around the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of days. The official forecast is somewhat faster than the previous one, but is very close to the dynamical model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 14.2N 97.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 14.2N 99.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 15.2N 101.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 16.7N 102.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 18.0N 103.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 20.5N 104.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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