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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-10-22 04:34:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 220234 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 Vicente's satellite presentation hasn't changed much, with the low-level circulation located near the northeastern edge of a rather elongated area of deep convection. Satellite classifications remain unchanged, so the initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on continuity with the earlier ASCAT pass. Northeasterly shear is expected to continue affecting Vicente, and the global models show the cyclone dissipating within the next 24 to 48 hours. The NHC forecast brings Vicente near the coast of southwestern Mexico as a depression in 36 hours and inland as a remnant low by 48 hours, but it wouldn't be surprising if the small cyclone dissipated sooner. Regardless of the eventual details of Vicente's demise, the main hazard will be heavy rainfall across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding. The initial motion estimate remains south of due west or 260/09. Vicente should be steered around the southwestern and western edge of a mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico through dissipation. The spread in the model trackers remains quite large, as they are having difficulty tracking the small cyclone. For this cycle, the new NHC forecast has been adjusted to the left of the previous one through 12 to 24 hours due to the initial position and motion. After that time, the NHC track generally follows a blend of the previous official forecast and the fields from the latest global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 13.9N 98.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 14.3N 99.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 15.7N 101.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 17.5N 103.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 18.8N 103.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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