je.st
news
Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-10-22 16:45:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 221445 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 Satellite imagery and microwave data this morning are indicating that the early morning re-strengthening of Vicente has ended. The system appears elongated, with the low-level center becoming increasingly difficult to locate. Radar imagery from Acapulco, Mexico, does not suggest a well-organized tropical cyclone at this time. The averages of the subjective Dvorak analyses from SAB and TAFB support an initial intensity of 40 kt, which may be a little generous. Moderate northeasterly shear is forecast to continue over the cyclone the next couple of days which should support ongoing steady weakening. The GFS, HWRF, and HMON models show the cyclone dissipating tonight, with some of the other global model guidance showing little change in intensity until landfall. Given the current disorganized appearance, a weakening trend appears to be the most realistic scenario, with Vicente forecast to weaken to a tropical depression before it makes landfall over southwestern Mexico in about 36 hours. Regardless of the forecast intensity, the primary hazard will be heavy rainfall across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding. Vicente appears to have begun a turn to the west-northwest, and the initial motion is now estimated to be 290/10 kt as the system begins to round the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge over Mexico. As the cyclone rounds the western periphery of the ridge later today and Tuesday, a turn to the northwest and then north-northwest is expected. The latest NHC forecast track is similar, and just slightly to the right of the previous one, and is near the tightly clustered model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 14.9N 100.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 15.8N 101.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 17.4N 103.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 18.9N 104.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 24/1200Z 20.3N 104.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch/Latto
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||