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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-10-20 16:44:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 201444 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 Conventional satellite imagery and microwave data continue to reveal that Vicente is an unusually small tropical cyclone. Data show a ring of convection defining the center with most of the thunderstorm activity on the southwestern portion of the circulation. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB yield an initial intensity of 35 kt. The cyclone is not in the best environment for intensification given that the circulation has been interacting with land, however the shear is not high, and the cyclone is over 29 degree Celsius water. Once the circulation separates from land, some slight strengthening is then forecast. After that time, Vicente will be approaching the much larger circulation of strengthening Tropical Cyclone Willa, and the most likely scenario is that at least by 96 hours, Vicente will become absorbed within an outer band of Willa. This is the same scenario which occurred with Hurricane John and Tropical Storm Ileana back in August this year. Vicente is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 6 kt. The nose of a strong subtropical ridge is forecast to amplify and expand westward. This flow pattern should force Vicente to move on a west to west-southwest track for about 36 hours. Then as the cyclone reaches the southwestern end of the ridge and encounters the eastern portion of Willa's circulation, Vicente should turn toward the northwest until it becomes absorbed. It is interesting to note that unanimously, the track guidance forces Vicente to acquire a west-southwesterly component due to the expansion of the ridge, increasing the confidence in the the track forecast during the next 2 to 3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 14.3N 93.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 14.2N 94.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 13.5N 96.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 13.3N 98.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 13.8N 100.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 19.0N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 25/1200Z...ABSORBED BY WILLA $$ Forecaster Avila
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