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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-10-21 04:31:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 210231 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 Vicente consists of a tight but mostly exposed low-level swirl producing intermittent bursts of deep convection. We have expected an imminent westward or west-southwestward turn for the past 24 hours now, but it still hasn't happened, and the initial motion estimate is a little north of due west (280/6 kt). All of the generally best performing track models, except the UKMET, forecast that a turn toward the west-southwest should occur at any time, and even that model forecasts that a turn toward the due west is imminent. The NHC forecast dutifully follows the model guidance, but is a little north of the model consensus for the first 24 hours, based on recent trends. Beyond that time, a turn toward the west-northwest or northwest is still anticipated, assuming Vicente is steered by the southerly flow on the outer fringes of the much larger Willa to its west, and the NHC forecast closely follows the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids. A few members of the ECMWF and GFS ensembles do not show the two cyclones interacting, resulting in a significantly different and much farther west track for Vicente. While this scenario does not seem likely at this point, it does illustrate that the uncertainty in the track forecast has increased since earlier today. The intensity of Vicente is still estimated at 45 kt, based on earlier ASCAT data and the UW-CIMSS SATCON. While the small size of Vicente could make it susceptible to short-term swings in intensity that are very difficult to predict, the intensity guidance generally forecasts little change in the maximum winds over the next day or two. Beyond 48 h, close proximity to land and interaction with Willa is expected to cause Vicente to weaken and eventually dissipate. No changes of note were made to the intensity forecast in this advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 14.8N 95.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 14.4N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 14.3N 97.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 14.9N 99.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 16.0N 101.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 18.0N 103.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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