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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-10-21 10:57:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 210857 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 Vicente remains a tiny tropical cyclone as evidenced by ASCAT passes around 03Z-04Z, which showed a very small but well-defined circulation, with peak wind speed values of 38 kt. Those peak winds were likely undersampled given the small radius of maximum winds of only 10-15 nmi. Based on Vicente's small size and the ASCAT wind data, the initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory, which above all of the other the intensity estimates, and lies closest to the UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 43 kt. Little change in intensity is forecast due to moderate northerly shear expected to affect the cyclone throughout the forecast period, along with Vicente's proximity to land and occasional dry intrusions. Rapid weakening and dissipation are expected after landfall due to the mountainous terrain of Mexico. The initial motion is now west-southwestward or 255/08 kt. Vicente is expected to move westward later today and then turn toward the west-northwest on Monday and northwest on Tuesday when the cyclone will come under the influence of the Hurricane Willa's larger circulation. Landfall is expected to occur along the southwestern coast of mainland Mexico on Wednesday. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly packed about the previous advisory track, and only minor forward speed changes were required, except for a more rightward shift in the track at 72 hours resulting in landfall. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 14.5N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 14.3N 97.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 14.4N 99.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 15.2N 100.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 16.6N 102.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 19.2N 104.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND SWRN MEXICO 96H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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