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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-09-17 04:34:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 170234 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 A layer of cirrus clouds are covering the center of Vicky, but those clouds are associated with outflow from Hurricane Teddy. A combination of outflow from Teddy and an upper-level low to the north of Vicky is causing very strong westerly winds across the top of the struggling tropical storm. As a result, Vicky is producing minimal convection that is displaced to the east of the center. Recent ASCAT data indicated that the maximum winds are still near 35 kt, but Vicky's wind field is becoming smaller and the system is on the overall decline. There is no indication that the shear will decrease and Vicky should weaken as a result. The NHC forecast calls for Vicky to become a remnant low within 24 hours (if not sooner) and dissipate in a few days. Vicky is still heading generally westward. The tropical storm will likely continue westward through tomorrow morning, and then turn west-southwestward in the low-level tradewind flow after that for as long as it lasts. There is little spread in the track guidance and the NHC forecast is essentially the same as the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 21.6N 35.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 21.6N 37.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 21.0N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1200Z 20.2N 40.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0000Z 19.4N 42.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky [ more ]
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