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Tropical Storm Xavier Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-11-05 09:42:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Nov 05 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 050841 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 300 AM CST Mon Nov 05 2018 The satellite presentation of Xavier has degraded somewhat overnight, with the main area of convection decreasing in coverage and becoming more separated from the low-level center. Somewhat surprisingly, a couple of ASCAT passes between 0345 and 0500 UTC indicated peak winds of around 50 kt. This suggests that Xavier may have been slightly stronger than previously estimated since the overall structure of the storm was better defined yesterday afternoon and evening. Based on these data, the intensity was adjusted to 50 kt on the 0600 UTC intermediate advisory, and remains at that value for now. The intensity forecast reasoning remains unchanged. Strong shear and an increasingly drier mid-level air mass are expected to cause the tropical storm to weaken fairly quickly over the next day or so, and the global models suggest that Xavier will degenerate into a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours. Xavier has been moving slowly northwestward or 305/3 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge that is building to the north of Xavier should cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward, and then westward during the next 12 to 24 hours. As the system weakens it is forecast to move westward or west-southwestward within the low-level flow until dissipation occurs in 3 to 4 days. The track guidance envelope shifted somewhat southward this cycle, and as a result, the official forecast was adjusted in that direction but it remains to the north of the consensus models out of respect for continuity with the previous NHC track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 18.4N 105.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 18.7N 106.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 18.9N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 19.1N 109.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 19.2N 110.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0600Z 19.0N 112.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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