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Tropical Storm Xavier Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-11-04 03:37:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Nov 03 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 040237 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 1000 PM CDT Sat Nov 03 2018 Xavier's overall structure has not changed since this afternoon. The tropical storm is still strongly sheared and deep convection is primarily occurring to the northeast of its low-level center. Recent objective and subjective intensity estimates range from 45 to 50 kt. Earlier ASCAT data explicitly contained several vectors near 45 kt, but the instrument could have under-sampled the maximum winds. Based on all these data, 50 kt seems most representative of the tropical storm's intensity at this time. Regardless of Xavier's exact maximum winds, it is likely nearing its peak intensity now. Some slight additional strengthening in the short term can not be ruled out, however the global models indicate that strong wind shear will continue through the forecast period and the flow aloft will become less supportive for convection by late Sunday or early Monday. All of the intensity models forecast that Xavier will begin to weaken in about 24 h. By 96 h, if not sooner, the dynamical models indicate that Xavier will lose all deep convection and become a remnant low. Virtually no change was made to the official intensity forecast, which is merely an update of the previous advisory. Xavier is now moving toward the northeast, and the initial motion estimate is 035/6 kt. With the continued exception of the UKMET model, the typically reliable track guidance is in good agreement on the track of the tropical storm. The cyclone will likely turn northward tonight or tomorrow, and is then forecast to turn steadily westward in another day or two as it weakens and becomes vertically shallow. The UKMET does not show this turn and shows a stronger/deeper Xavier that moves farther north, though this scenario appears unlikely given the strong agreement among the intensity models that Xavier will weaken. Only minor adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast, which blends the previous official forecast with the HCCA and GFEX consensus aids at most forecast hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 16.1N 105.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 16.7N 105.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 17.4N 105.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 17.8N 106.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 17.9N 107.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 18.1N 110.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 18.3N 112.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0000Z 18.5N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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