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Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-10-29 15:52:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 291452 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020 Zeta continues to move rapidly over land, and its maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 45 kt over the southeastern quadrant, with thew highest winds occuring over elevated locations. The wind gust factor continues to be higher than usual due to the interaction with land. Zeta continues to accelerate northeastward and is now moving near 055/42 kt. The cyclone should accelerate some more ahead of a strong 500-mb trough moving into the eastern United States over the next day or so. The official track forecast is in reasonable agreement with the global model predictions. The pressure pattern of Zeta is becoming distorted, and starting to take on an extratropical appearance as the cyclone begins to interact with a nearby frontal system. By this afternoon, the global models indicate that the system will become a frontal low and thus extratropical. Some short-term baroclinic strengthening is possible over the western Atlantic, but the guidance suggests that the system will become absorbed into the frontal zone in 36 hours or so. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Strong, damaging wind gusts, which could cause tree damage and power outages, will continue to spread eastward across portions of the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia through this afternoon due to Zeta's fast forward speed. 2. Through today, heavy rainfall is expected near and in advance of Zeta from portions of the Ohio Valley, into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. This rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 36.5N 81.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 30/0000Z 39.4N 73.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 30/1200Z 42.0N 60.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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