Using U.S. Steel's C4Q14 guidance, we likely saw peak earnings in C3Q14 ; this is only exacerbated by a number of instances in which global price arbitrage "freebies" in the metals space have effectively been closed While many of our peers seem to think, for some strange reason, U.S. HRC prices have magically decoupled from global prices, we simply do not buy this thesis, & rather believe, when looking at the data, the reversal of this dynamic is already underway. What do we mean? Well, while it got little fanfare, Sep. '14 MSCI service center inventories hit a 5yr-high when reported 10/23, & HRC inventories at the service centers are now at 5yr-highs as well .