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Post-Tropical Cyclone Hernan Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-08-28 22:32:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 282032 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 2100 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 110.1W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 110.1W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 109.5W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 23.3N 111.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 110.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Hernan Graphics
2020-08-28 16:50:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2020 14:50:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2020 14:50:37 GMT
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Tropical Depression Hernan Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-08-28 16:42:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 281442 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Hernan Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 900 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020 Satellite imagery shows that Hernan has become less organized since the last advisory with most of the associated convection dissipating. In addition, surface observations in the coastal areas near the cyclone suggest the possibility that it no longer has a closed circulation, although there are no observations over water to confirm this. Based on decreasing satellite intensity estimates, Hernan is downgraded to a tropical depression. Additional weakening is forecast, and Hernan is expected to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area as it moves over the Baja California peninsula later today and tonight. The system is then expected to weaken to a trough on Saturday. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/18. Hernan is moving around the northeastern side of the monsoon gyre that contains Tropical Storm Iselle, and a general west-northwestward motion is expected until the system dissipates on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 23.4N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 24.1N 110.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Hernan Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-08-28 16:42:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 281441 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LA PAZ 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Hernan (EP3/EP132020)
2020-08-28 16:41:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HERNAN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 the center of Hernan was located near 23.4, -109.1 with movement WNW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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