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Tropical Depression Hernan Public Advisory Number 10
2020-08-28 16:41:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 281441 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Hernan Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 900 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020 ...HERNAN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 109.1W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southeastern coast of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Hernan. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Hernan was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 109.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, Hernan is forecast to move over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula this afternoon or tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Hernan is expected to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area tonight. The remnants are expected to dissipate on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Hernan Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-08-28 16:41:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 281441 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HERNAN. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 109.1W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 109.1W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 108.6W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 24.1N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 109.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Hernan Graphics
2020-08-28 10:10:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2020 08:10:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2020 08:10:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm Hernan Public Advisory Number 9
2020-08-28 10:09:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 280809 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hernan Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 300 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020 ...HERNAN LOCATED NORTHEAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES... ...COULD ENTER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATER THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 107.3W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southeastern coast of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Hernan. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hernan was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 107.3 West. Hernan is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slow turn toward the west with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. Hernan is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of California later today and could approach the southeast coast of the Baja California peninsula by late Friday. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next day or so and Hernan is forecast to dissipate on Saturday, if not sooner. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Hernan Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-08-28 10:09:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 280809 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 300 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020 Shortly after the release of the previous advisory, microwave imagery from a WindSat overpass showed no indication of a well-defined center near Hernan's estimated location. However,there was a hint of a small vortex well to the northeast. Subsequent ASCAT data showed that the well-defined vortex had moved near the Islas Marias and had winds of 30-35 kt. Data from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper showed a continuous maximum in lightning near Hernan's center from yesterday afternoon through the new estimated position. Confidence is therefore fairly high that Hernan has persisted as a tropical cyclone, at least through 0400 UTC this morning. Due to the northeastward relocation of the center, the track forecast has been significantly changed in that direction and now shows Hernan entering the Gulf of California later today. Hernan appears to be quickly moving around a larger low-level cyclonic gyre centered just west of the coast of Mexico. The gyre could steer Hernan or its remnants over the Baja California peninsula later today or early Saturday, but it is not forecast to have sustained tropical-storm-force winds at that time. All of the global models show Hernan opening into a trough within about 24 hours, but it could happen much sooner than that- possibly before Hernan even reaches the Gulf of California. If Hernan does make it to the coast as a depression or remnant low, it could produce some gusty winds before it quickly weakens and dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 22.7N 107.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 23.6N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 24.2N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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