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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-11-04 13:13:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 041212 CCA TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 3...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 100 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 Corrected Time Zone Information Odalys continues to be characterized by a broad, northeast to southwest oriented circulation with rather sporadic deep convection near the center along with some banding features well displaced to the north and south. A pair of recent ASCAT overpasses showed little change in intensity, with an area of 30-35 kt winds in the northeast quadrant. Based on these values and the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB, the initial intensity is being held at 35 kt. Strengthening is no longer anticipated, as Odalys has not been able to take advantage of the warm waters in an environment of ample atmospheric moisture and moderate wind shear. By Thursday morning, the cyclone is forecast to encounter strong southwesterly vertical wind shear while moving over waters of about 26 C. By late Thursday, the system will also enter a dry and stable atmospheric environment. These increasingly hostile conditions should cause Odalys to weaken, with the cyclone likely becoming devoid of deep convection in 2-3 days. The latest intensity forecast is in good agreement with the various intensity guidance models. Odalys is moving northwestward at 14 kt. A northwest to west-northwest motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed for the next day or so as the storm moves on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge that is centered over southern Texas and northern Mexico. As Odalys weakens later this week, a turn to the west and then the southwest is forecast as the weaker and more shallow cyclone should be steered by the low-level northeasterly trade winds. The models remain tightly clustered, and the latest NHC track forecast is very near the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 15.6N 118.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 16.6N 120.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 17.7N 121.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 18.4N 123.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 18.2N 125.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 17.6N 126.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0600Z 16.8N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0600Z 15.3N 129.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-11-04 09:56:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 040856 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Wed Nov 04 2020 Eta still has a well-organized cloud pattern while it moves over northern Nicaragua, but there has been a considerable decrease in deep convection as evidenced by the warming cloud tops. Assuming an inland weakening rate as given by the Decay-SHIPS model, the current intensity is reduced to 60 kt. Continued weakening will occur over the next 48 hours or so, and the system should degenerate into remnant low tomorrow. In fact, the surface circulation could lose its identity in a day or two. However, the upper-level circulation is likely to remain intact, and a surface cyclone is predicted to regenerate once the system moves into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Some strengthening is forecast thereafter, in line with the intensity model consensus. However, the global models show the system interacting with a strong upper-level trough in 3-5 days, so the cyclone may have some hybrid or subtropical characteristics by that time. Eta continues westward, or at about 270/7 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer it on a generally west-northwestward track during the next 48 hours. Thereafter, a 500-mb trough/low dropping into the Gulf of Mexico is expected to cause the cyclone to move northeastward in 3-4 days. By the end of the forecast period, the system is expected to rotate cyclonically around the eastern side of the low. The official track forecast is quite close to the latest corrected consensus, HCCA, prediction which is usually a good performer. There is still significant uncertainty as to the details of the track in the 3- to 5-day time frame. Of more immediate concern are the torrential rains that Eta will continue to produce over portions of Central America. Key Messages: 1. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. 2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength before it moves across portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida this weekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing, magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall, interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Eta through the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 13.8N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 14.0N 85.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/0600Z 14.6N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/1800Z 15.5N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0600Z 16.5N 88.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/1800Z 17.6N 87.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 07/0600Z 19.0N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 22.6N 81.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 25.0N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-11-04 09:52:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Nov 04 2020 184 WTPZ45 KNHC 040852 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 200 AM PDT Wed Nov 04 2020 Odalys continues to be characterized by a broad, northeast to southwest oriented circulation with rather sporadic deep convection near the center along with some banding features well displaced to the north and south. A pair of recent ASCAT overpasses showed little change in intensity, with an area of 30-35 kt winds in the northeast quadrant. Based on these values and the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB, the initial intensity is being held at 35 kt. Strengthening is no longer anticipated, as Odalys has not been able to take advantage of the warm waters in an environment of ample atmospheric moisture and moderate wind shear. By Thursday morning, the cyclone is forecast to encounter strong southwesterly vertical wind shear while moving over waters of about 26 C. By late Thursday, the system will also enter a dry and stable atmospheric environment. These increasingly hostile conditions should cause Odalys to weaken, with the cyclone likely becoming devoid of deep convection in 2-3 days. The latest intensity forecast is in good agreement with the various intensity guidance models. Odalys is moving northwestward at 14 kt. A northwest to west-northwest motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed for the next day or so as the storm moves on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge that is centered over southern Texas and northern Mexico. As Odalys weakens later this week, a turn to the west and then the southwest is forecast as the weaker and more shallow cyclone should be steered by the low-level northeasterly trade winds. The models remain tightly clustered, and the latest NHC track forecast is very near the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 15.6N 118.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 16.6N 120.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 17.7N 121.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 18.4N 123.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 18.2N 125.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 17.6N 126.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0600Z 16.8N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0600Z 15.3N 129.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Eta Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-11-04 03:45:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 040245 TCDAT4 Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2020 Satellite imagery and surface observation data indicate that Hurricane Eta has moved farther inland over northeastern Nicaragua this evening. Eta has maintained a well-defined CDO feature in infrared satellite data, although passive microwave imagery is no longer depicting an eye feature. A sustained wind of 93 kt (107 mph) with a gust to 117 kt (135 mph) was reported at the Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, airport around 03/2139 UTC while the eye of Eta was just inland. The initial intensity of 90 kt is based on a standard decay rate for inland tropical cyclones. The initial motion estimate is 270/05 kt. The track forecast reasoning is fairly straightforward for the next 72 h. A narrow ridge to the north and northeast of the cyclone will cause Eta to gradually turn toward the west-northwest over the next 12 h, and maintain that motion through 48 h. In the 48-72 h period, Eta or its remnants are expected to turn northward and then northeastward, and emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea offshore the Yucatan Peninsula by 72 h. Thereafter, the forecast becomes more complex due to expected mid-latitude interaction with an upper-level trough/low currently over the southwestern U.S. that will be digging southeastward and amplifying over the Gulf of Mexico and as far south as the Yucatan by 96 h. The trough is expected to lift out Eta or its remnants northeastward across Cuba, then slow down and turn northward toward the southern Florida peninsula by 120 h when the cyclone will be interacting with an upper-level low over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Due to this complex mid-latitude low/trough interaction, the track forecast at days 4 and 5 contains some uncertainty. The new NHC track forecast is just a little to the left of the previous advisory track through 72 hours, but not as far west as the simple- and corrected-consensus models, and is very similar to the previous advisory track at 96 and 120 hours. Similar to the track forecast, the intensity forecast is also straightforward through 72 h, which calls for Eta to rapidly weaken for the next 48 h so using a standard decay rate for inland tropical cyclones. By 72 h and beyond, the intensity forecast becomes a little more complicated due to the aforementioned mid-latitude trough interaction. The global models are still in fairly good agreement with the development of an anticyclonically curved upper-level jetstream across the northwestern Caribbean Sea, Cuba, and the Bahamas by 96 h. There are some subtropical jet dynamics already occurring across the northwestern Caribbean, which has helped to generate widespread convection across the region today. As the jetstream amplifies ahead of the vigorous upper-level trough, significant upper-level divergence is expected to develop, which will cause surface pressures to fall across the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Those strong pressure falls will likely aid in the redevelopment of Eta or generate a new tropical cyclone. Regardless of the exact formation, the global and regional models are all in good agreement on a tropical or subtropical cyclone developing and moving across Cuba and toward Florida on days 4 and 5. The new official intensity forecast is very similar to the previous intensity forecast through 72 hours, and then is slightly higher thereafter, but not as high as some of the intensity guidance like the HCCA and ICON consensus models. Key Messages: 1. Significant wind damage is expected along the coast of northeastern Nicaragua and also inland overnight. 2. A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge, along with destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua overnight. Water levels could reach as high as 5 to 10 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area. 3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. 4. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength as it moves across portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida this weekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing, magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall, interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Eta through the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 13.8N 84.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 12H 04/1200Z 13.9N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/0000Z 14.4N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/1200Z 15.3N 88.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0000Z 16.0N 89.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/1200Z 16.9N 88.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0000Z 17.9N 86.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 08/0000Z 21.1N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 24.3N 80.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-11-04 03:41:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Nov 03 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 040241 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 800 PM PDT Tue Nov 03 2020 Satellite images indicate that Odalys has not changed much since genesis earlier today. The cyclone still has a large curved band on the western side of the storm, but there is little organized convection to the east of the center. The overall circulation remains quite broad and appears elongated from northeast to southwest. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were both T2.5/35 kt at 0000Z, and the ADT and SATCON numbers from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are about the same. Based on these estimates, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. Odalys could strengthen slightly overnight and early Wednesday while it remains over warm water and in moderate wind shear conditions. However, the models agree that any opportunity for strengthening should end in about 24 hours when Odalys moves into a region of strong southerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear. The combination of the increasing shear, cooler waters, and drier and more stable air should cause Odalys to begin weakening by Wednesday night or early Thursday. The cyclone is now forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Friday, but that could occur even sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is in line with the majority of the guidance. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge that is centered over southern Texas and northern Mexico. A continued west-northwest to northwest motion, but at a slower pace, is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, a turn to the west and then the southwest is forecast as the weaker and more shallow Odalys should be steered by the low-level northeasterly trade winds. The models are tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 14.9N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 16.0N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 17.3N 120.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 18.1N 122.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 18.5N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 18.1N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 17.3N 126.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0000Z 15.6N 129.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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