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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-11-12 21:47:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 122047 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 PM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020 The appearance and structure of Theta has changed little today, with intermittent bursts of convection wrapping mostly around the center of circulation. There has been no new observational data since last night, and it is still assumed that the cyclone's intensity remains a somewhat uncertain 55 kt due to the consistency of its appearance. Theta's motion over the past 12 h is 090/10 kt as the cyclone continues to be steered around the north side of a mid-level ridge. A slower east-southeastward motion is expected from 36-72 h as the mid-level ridge to the south weakens and mid- to upper-level northerly flow moves over Theta. After 72 h, Theta or its remnants are expected to turn northeastward or northward and accelerate in the low-level flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic. The latest track forecast has changed little from the previous one and remains near the multi-model consensus tracks. The shear across Theta is expected to relax somewhat over the next day or so, while the cyclone moves over cooler waters. These counteracting effects should allow the cyclone to maintain its intensity during that time. By this weekend, strong northerly shear is expected to impact Theta, while stable air gets entrained into its circulation. This should cause the cyclone to weaken, with the system likely degenerating into a remnant low by Sunday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous one and is close to the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 31.7N 27.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 31.8N 25.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 31.8N 23.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 31.5N 21.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 31.2N 20.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 31.1N 19.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 31.4N 19.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1800Z 34.0N 19.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/1800Z 38.4N 15.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 50
2020-11-12 21:43:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 122043 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 50 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the center of Eta moved off the Georgia coast around 18z, a little farther north than previously anticipated. The satellite presentation of the storm has become quite ragged with the primary convective band located well east of the center. The circulation has also become more elongated, with the strongest winds occurring east of the center over the Atlantic waters. Based on the continued degradation of Eta's organization, the initial wind speed has been lowered to 35 kt. Little change in strength is anticipated through early Friday due to moderate to strong westerly shear. The UKMET and ECMWF models continue to show some re-intensification of the system as an extratropical low by late Friday, and that is what is indicated in the official foreast. A plausible alternative scenario that is favored by the GFS is for the circulation to become elongated and dissipate along an approaching frontal boundary on Friday. Eta is moving northeastward at about 16 kt. The cyclone should continue to accelerate northeastward over the next day or so ahead of a mid-latitude trough that is forecast to move across the Great Lakes Region and approach the northeastern United States on Friday. Only slight modifications to the previous official forecast were required, and the new NHC track forecast is near the middle of the tightly clustered dynamical models. Deep-layer moisture that has spread northward along a frontal boundary across portions of eastern North Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic coast is producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding that is not directly associated with Eta. See products from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 31.6N 80.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 33.2N 77.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 35.6N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 14/0600Z 38.7N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 49
2020-11-12 15:47:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 121447 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 The center of Eta made landfall near Cedar Key, Florida with an estimated intensity of 45 kt shortly after the release of the previous NHC advisory package. Since that time, the center of Eta has moved across the northern portion of the Florida peninsula. Some weakening has occurred, but ship and buoy observations along and just off the northeast Florida coast support an initial intensity of 40 kt. Little change in strength is expected when Eta moves over the western Atlantic tonight and early Friday due to moderate to strong southwesterly shear. The ECMWF and UKMET models indicate that Eta could strengthen after it merges with a frontal zone and becomes extratropical well offshore of the east coast of the United States late Friday and Friday night. The NHC forecast calls for some slight intensification of the extratropical cyclone before it is absorbed by a large low pressure area over the western Atlantic on Saturday. Eta is moving northeastward at about 13 kt. Eta should continue to accelerate northeastward over the next day or so within the mid-latitude westerlies, ahead of a trough that will move across the Great Lakes region on Friday. The new official forecast is again a little faster than the previous NHC track, but the latest guidance did not require much cross-track change. Deep-layer moisture from that has spread northward along a frontal boundary across the Carolinas is producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding that is not directly associated with Eta. See products from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office for additional information. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in the warning area along portions of the northeast Florida Coast through early this afternoon. 2. Localized bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of the Florida Peninsula today, resulting in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas. Minor river flooding is expected across portions of West Florida lasting into the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 30.2N 81.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 32.0N 79.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 34.1N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 37.3N 70.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/1200Z 40.5N 62.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-11-12 15:45:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 121445 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 PM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020 Although the cloud top temperatures across the broad comma-shaped convective shield have warmed this morning, there is some new convection that has been developing nearer to Theta's center over the past few hours. Unfortunately, the scatterometer passes this morning missed sampling the winds near the center of the cyclone. However, the partial ASCAT-A overpass showed that 45 kt winds are occurring nearly 100 n mi to the southwest of the center of Theta. Therefore it is assumed that stronger winds are still occurring closer to the center of the cyclone, and the initial intensity is being held at 55 kt. Theta has now turned to the right, and the initial motion is 080/10 kt. For about the next 36 h, the cyclone is expected to continue moving just north of east around the north side of a mid-level ridge. A slower east-southeastward motion is expected from 36-72 h as the mid-level ridge to the south weakens and mid- to upper-level northerly flow moves over Theta. After 72 h, Theta or its remnants are expected to turn northeastward or northward and accelerate in the low-level flow ahead of an approaching deep-layer mid-latitude cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic. The latest track forecast is little changed from the previous one and is near the multi-model consensus tracks. The shear across Theta is expected to relax somewhat over the day or so, while moving over cooler waters. The counteracting effects should allow the cyclone to maintain its intensity. By this weekend, strong northerly shear is expected to impact Theta, while stable air gets entrained into its circulation. This should cause the cyclone to weaken, with the system likely degenerating into a remnant low by Sunday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is just slightly above the guidance through 60 h, and is near the various consensus models thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 31.6N 28.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 31.7N 27.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 31.8N 24.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 31.8N 22.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 31.5N 21.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 15/0000Z 31.2N 20.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 31.1N 19.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1200Z 32.7N 19.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/1200Z 37.6N 17.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 48
2020-11-12 09:54:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 120854 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 Satellite images indicate that Eta has lost most of its central deep convection over the past several hours, with the radar center becoming poorly defined and decreasing winds aloft noted. The last Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission found winds to support about 50 kt, and with the continued loss of organization, the current wind speed is lowered to 45 kt. The tropical cyclone should be making landfall in the Cedar Key area soon. Eta is forecast to weaken over its short passage over the Florida peninsula later today, and over the western Atlantic tonight due to strong shear. There has been a change in some of the guidance showing the tropical cyclone re-gaining strength as a non-tropical low after 24 hours due to a more favorable positioning with the next mid-latitude trough near the Great Lakes on Friday. The strongest solutions are seen in the UKMET and ECMWF models, which indicate even storm-force winds are possible in a few days. I'd rather wait one more cycle to see if this trend continues but, as a compromise, the new forecast shows some re-strengthening as an extratropical cyclone and reverses any former weakening trend. The storm is moving a little faster to the northeast this morning. Eta should accelerate even more in that direction later today as it becomes steered by the faster middle-latitude flow. The new forecast shows a more rapid forward speed than the previous advisory, which is related to the ECMWF/UKMET model solutions of Eta showing some extratropical intensification and staying coherent, rather than shearing out as a weak low like the GFS. Eta should merge with a large non-tropical low in 2 to 3 days. Key Messages: 1. There remains a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from the Middle of Longboat Key to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in the warning area along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast during the next few hours, and in the warning area on the east coast later today. 3. Localized bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of the Florida Peninsula today, resulting in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas. Minor river flooding is expected across portions of west Florida lasting into the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 29.1N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 30.6N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 32.6N 78.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 35.2N 73.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/0600Z 38.0N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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