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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 30

2016-10-05 16:54:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 051454 TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2016 Both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes have been in the eye of Matthew during the past several hours. Data from those planes indicate that the hurricane is gradually recovering from the passage over the mountains of eastern Cuba and Haiti. The eye is becoming better defined on satellite. Based on SFMR winds of 103 kt and a flight-level peak wind of 118 kt, the initial intensity is 105 kt. The environment between the Bahamas and Florida is favorable for Matthew to restrengthen some during the next couple of days. After that time, the shear is forecast to increase, resulting in gradual weakening. Fixes from the planes indicate that Matthew is moving toward the northwest or 325 degrees at about 8 to 10 kt. The subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic is amplifying as anticipated by the global models. The flow pattern around this ridge should continue to steer the hurricane toward the northwest during the next day or two with no significant change in forward speed. After that time the ridge will move east allowing Matthew to move northward very near or over the Florida east coast and then near or to the east of the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. By the end of the forecast period, models have changed significantly since yesterday. Some track models keep the hurricane moving eastward across the Atlantic while the GFS and the ECMWF reduce the hurricane's forward speed with a southward turn. This change in these two valuable models is reflected in the current NHC forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in portions of the hurricane warning areas in Cuba and the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other government officials in those countries. 2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at any one location. For example, only a small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida. However, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane- force winds offshore. 3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to determine what, if any, land areas might be directly affected by Matthew next week. At a minimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast during the next several days. 4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation, but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 21.8N 75.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 23.1N 76.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 24.8N 77.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 26.6N 79.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 28.2N 80.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 31.5N 80.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 32.5N 76.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 32.0N 74.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 29

2016-10-05 11:02:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 050902 TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2016 The satellite presentation of Matthew has degraded since its interaction with the mountains terrain of eastern Cuba with the eye no longer discernible in infrared satellite pictures. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that Matthew has weakened slightly. The aircraft measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 118 kt and SFMR winds of 109 kt to the northeast of the center. Based on these data the initial wind speed has been lowered to 110 kt. Matthew will be moving over sea surface temperatures of 29 to 30 degrees Celsius and the shear is expected to remain low during the next couple of days. These conditions should allow some slight restrengthening while it moves through the Bahamas. Increasing shear later in the forecast period is likely to cause gradual weakening. Matthew is moving northward or 350/8 kt. A northwestward turn is expected to occur today as the ridge to the north of Matthew builds westward. This should steer the hurricane through the Bahamas and near the east coast of Florida during the next 48 hours. After that time, the global models turn the hurricane northward, then northeastward when a ridge to the northeast of Matthew shifts eastward and a mid- to upper-level trough approaches the eastern United States. The 0000 UTC GFS has shifted slightly west of the previous run, and is now close to the UKMET and ECWMF tracks. The new NHC forecast is very similar to the previous advisory through 72 hours, and shows a track very close to much of the east coast of the Florida peninsula. Only a slight deviation to the west of forecast track could result in landfall in Florida. The last few iterations of the global models have been trending toward a solution in which the trough is not deep enough to completely lift Matthew northeastward. As a result, the NHC track has been shifted significantly southward at day 5, but it remains well north of the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in portions of the warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other government officials in those countries. 2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to estimate impacts this far in advance. For example, only a small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore, while a small deviation to the right could keep all of the hurricane-force winds offshore. It will likely take another day or so for the potential impacts of Matthew in the United States to clarify. 3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther to the north. At a minimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend. 4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation, but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 21.1N 74.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 22.3N 75.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 23.9N 76.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 25.5N 78.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 27.2N 79.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 30.5N 80.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 32.8N 77.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 33.1N 74.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 4

2016-10-05 10:29:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST WED OCT 05 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 050829 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST WED OCT 05 2016 Nicole continues to hold its strength despite strong wind shear. Satellite images show a rather robust circulation, with a small area of deep convection near the center and a larger band to the east of the center. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt, based on Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Nicole is expected to remain in strong wind shear conditions caused by the outflow of Hurricane Matthew during the next few days, which should prevent the storm from strengthening. Beyond that time, Nicole is expected to interact with a mid- to upper-level low and could acquire some subtropical cyclone characteristics this weekend. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one beyond 36 hours to come into better agreement with the latest guidance, which generally shows Nicole staying relatively steady state through the period. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 6 kt on the southwest side of a subtropical ridge. A turn to the northwest is likely later today followed by a northward motion in 36 to 48 hours as the cyclone moves toward a weakness in the ridge. After that time, a slow and erratic motion is expected as Nicole interacts with the cut off upper-level low. The NHC track forecast closely follows a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models, and is fairly similar to the previous prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 24.3N 61.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 25.5N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 26.8N 64.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 27.7N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 28.4N 64.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 28.0N 62.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 28.3N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 30.0N 63.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 28

2016-10-05 04:56:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 050256 TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016 Hurricane Matthew made landfall along the extreme eastern coast of Cuba near Juaco around 0000 UTC this evening, and the eye is just now moving off of the northeastern coast of Cuba. Some weakening has occurred due to interaction with the mountains of eastern Cuba and western Haiti. However, latest reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the central pressure hasn't risen much and that the maximum winds have only decreased to an estimated 115 kt, keeping Matthew a dangerous category four hurricane. Radar and recon fixes indicate that Matthew is moving slightly west of due north, or 350/07 kt. Matthew is expected to begin turning toward the north-northwest during the next 12 hours or so, followed by a northwestward motion in 24-48 hours as the large ridge to the north of the powerful hurricane begins to build westward across the southeastern United States in response to a broad trough over the central U.S. weakening and lifting out to the northeast. The next upstream weather system that will affect the steering currents surrrounding Matthew is a large trough currently approaching the northwestern U.S. and southwestern Canada. That system is forecast to dig southeastward and amplify over the central U.S. during next several days, resulting in significant ridging downstream over the northeastern United States. As the next ridge builds and lifts northward, Matthew is expected to turn northward as well by 72 hours, and turn northeastward after that as the aforementioned trough moves eastward into the eastern United States by 96-120 hours. The official forecast track remains close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. The current 10-15 kt of northwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to weaken to around 5 kt by 36-48 hours while Matthew is moving over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, where SSTs are expected to be near 30 deg C. That combination, along with high mid-level humidity, should enable Matthew to maintain category four status, although eyewall replacement cycles, which can not be forecast with any skill, could result in fluctuations in the intensity not shown by the official forecast. By 72 hours and beyond, steadily increasing vertical wind shear is expected to induce gradual weakening. The official intensity forecast is close to but slightly above the consensus model IVCN. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in portions of the warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other government officials in those countries. 2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to estimate impacts this far in advance. For example, only a small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore, while a small deviation to the right could keep all of the hurricane-force winds offshore. It will likely take another day or so for the potential impacts of Matthew in the United States to clarify. 3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of Florida north of the current Hurricane Watch area, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther to the north. At a minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 20.4N 74.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 21.7N 74.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 23.3N 76.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 25.0N 77.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 26.7N 79.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 30.3N 80.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 33.2N 78.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 37.0N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 3

2016-10-05 04:45:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 050245 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2016 Nicole has developed a comma-shaped cloud pattern this evening, with the low-level center estimated to be about midway between the end of a long curved band and the end of an associated dry slot. Dvorak classifications are T3.0 from both satellite agencies, and thus the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. Although over waters around 29 deg C during the next few days, Nicole is forecast to be affected by strong northwesterly to northerly shear associated with the outflow of Hurricane Matthew to its east. While the shear may not be strong enough to induce much weakening, it very likely would prevent Nicole from intensifying. By about 72 hours, the northerly shear should further increase, and it is possible that Nicole would degenerate into a remnant low by that time or shortly thereafter. The new intensity forecast is identical to the previous one, and is close to the statistical model output that shows no change in strength through 36 hours and then weakening. Nicole is shown to maintain tropical cyclone status throughout the forecast period out of respect for the ECMWF solution, which shows this possibility. The initial motion is 300/05. Nicole is expected to move west-northwestward and then northward around a mid-level high located east of Bermuda for the next couple of days. Meanwhile, a mid-tropospheric cyclone near the northeastern United States coast is forecast to dive southeastward toward Nicole, which should cause the cyclone to turn eastward or even southeastward from 72-96 hours. Should the cyclone survive, a turn toward the north is likely by 120 hours ahead of another shortwave trough moving of the United States east coast. The new track forecast is shifted to the east after 36 hours in response to the track guidance, which has moved in that direction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 24.2N 61.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 25.1N 62.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 26.5N 63.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 27.7N 64.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 28.5N 64.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 28.3N 63.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 28.3N 62.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 30.0N 62.4W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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