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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 27
2016-10-04 22:59:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 042059 TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016 The eye of Hurricane Matthew is not as distinct as it was earlier today, and the change in the overall pattern suggests that the cyclone is a little weaker due to the interaction with the nearby high terrain. The initial intensity has been lowered to 120 kt and some slight additional weakening could occur tonight while Matthew's circulation continues to interact with Cuba and Hispaniola. Once Matthew moves into the Bahamas, the environment is favorable for the hurricane to maintain category 4 status for the next 2 days. Some weakening is anticipated beyond 3 days due to an increase of the wind shear. Earlier reconnaissance aircraft fixes, satellite and radar data from Cuba indicate that Matthew is moving toward the north or 360 degrees at about 8 kt. The hurricane continues to be steered by the flow around the western edge of a subtropical ridge. Most of the global models build the ridge westward, and this pattern should force the hurricane to turn toward the northwest across the Bahamas and to the waters just east of Florida. The most interesting change this afternoon is that the ECMWF has forecast a stronger western Atlantic ridge than in previous runs. This evolution resulted in an additional leftward shift of the ECMWF track and consequently, the NHC forecast has also been adjusted to the left, necessitating the southward extension of the hurricane watch in Florida. Beyond 3 days, the ridge is forecast to move eastward, allowing Matthew to turn northward and then northeastward. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in portions of the warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other government officials in those countries. 2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to estimate impacts this far in advance. For example, only a small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore, while a small deviation to the right could keep all of the hurricane-force winds offshore. It will likely take another day or so for the potential impacts of Matthew in the United States to clarify. 3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of Florida north of the current Hurricane Watch area, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther to the north. At a minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 19.8N 74.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 21.1N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 22.5N 75.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 24.0N 76.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 25.9N 78.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 29.5N 80.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 33.5N 78.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 40.0N 71.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-10-04 22:37:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 042037 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2016 Nicole's cloud pattern hasn't changed much since earlier today. All of the deep convection is occurring over the eastern semicircle of the circulation as the storm continues to experience fairly strong northwesterly shear. The advisory intensity is held at 45 kt based on continuity from the earlier scatterometer data. Nicole is likely to continue to experience strong shear over the next several days, which should eventually result in weakening. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest LGEM guidance. The tropical cyclone continues moving northwestward, or 305/8 kt. Nicole should continue moving northwestward for the next couple of days, to the southwest of a mid-level high. Later in the forecast period, another high builds to the northwest of the cyclone and this would block the forward progress of Nicole in 4-5 days. The official track forecast leans toward the latest ECMWF prediction. This is a little faster than the previous forecast for the next few days, and a little east of it in the latter part of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 24.1N 61.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 25.0N 62.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 26.5N 63.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 27.8N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 29.0N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 29.0N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 29.0N 64.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 30.0N 63.0W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 26
2016-10-04 17:06:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 041506 TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016 The eye of Hurricane Matthew was quite distinct when it made landfall near Les Anglais, Haiti at 1100 UTC this morning, but since that time the eye has become obscured on conventional imagery. A reconnaissance plane measured SFMR winds of 118 kt earlier today, but the entire area has not been sampled yet by the plane. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept at 125 kt in this advisory. Some slight weakening could occur today while Matthew interacts with the high terrain of Cuba and Haiti, but the environment is favorable for the hurricane to maintain category 4 status for the next 2 days. Some weakening is anticipated by the end of the forecast period due to an increase of the wind shear. Radar fixes from Cuba and satellite data indicate that Matthew is moving toward the north or 360 degrees at about 9 kt. The hurricane is being steered by the flow around the western edge of a subtropical ridge. Most of the global models build the ridge westward, and this pattern should force the hurricane to turn toward the northwest across the Bahamas and to the waters just east of Florida. Beyond 3 days, the ridge is forecast to shift eastward allowing Matthew to turn northward and then northeastward. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track since strong winds, heavy rainfall, and a dangerous storm surge will extend far from the center of Matthew. Most of the models shows a strong hurricane near the east coast of Florida and the southeast United States from days 2 through 5. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in portions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other government officials in those countries. 2. Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches have been issued for portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys. 3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther north. At a minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 18.9N 74.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 20.3N 74.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 22.0N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 24.0N 76.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 25.6N 77.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 29.5N 79.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 34.0N 78.5W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/1200Z 39.5N 72.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-10-04 17:00:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE OCT 04 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 041500 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 AM AST TUE OCT 04 2016 The cloud pattern associated with the low pressure system to the northeast of Puerto Rico has become better organized, with some banding features having developed over the eastern portion of the circulation, and ASCAT data indicates that the circulation is now well-defined. Therefore advisories are being initiated on this system. Visible satellite images show that the low-level center is near the western edge of the deep convection. The scatterometer data indicate that the maximum winds are near 45 kt. Even stronger shear lies ahead for Nicole, and a weakening trend is likely to commence by late tomorrow. The official forecast is close to the LGEM guidance. The initial motion estimate is 310/7 kt. Over the next few days, the forward motion of Nicole is likely to become blocked by a mid-level high to the northwest. Therefore the cyclone is likely to begin meandering later in the forecast period. The official forecast track lies close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 23.8N 60.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 24.5N 61.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 25.5N 62.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 26.8N 63.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 28.2N 64.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 28.9N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 27.8N 64.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 27.5N 65.3W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 25
2016-10-04 10:54:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 040853 TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016 The satellite presentation of Matthew remains very impressive this morning. The eye was obscured during part of the night, but has become more distinct and slightly larger during the past couple of hours. Shortly after the release of the previous advisory, the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak 700-mb flight level wind of 142 kt, and SFMR winds of 127 kt in the northeast quadrant. During the final passage through the eye a little before 0500 UTC, the aircraft reported a minimum pressure of 934 mb. These data still support an initial intensity of 125 kt. The next reconnaissance aircraft mission is scheduled to be in Matthew before 1200 UTC this morning. Recent satellite and aircraft fixes show that Matthew is still moving a little east of due north or 005/8 kt. Matthew is expected to move generally northward around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge today and tonight. This will bring the center of Matthew near or over the southwestern peninsula of Haiti within the next few hours, and near the eastern tip of Cuba later today. After moving north of Cuba, Matthew is expected to turn north-northwestward, then northwestward by 48 hours, as the western portion of the aforementioned ridge builds westward to the north of the hurricane. Between days 3 and 4, Matthew should round the western periphery of the ridge and turn northward, then north-northeastward ahead of a trough approaching the east coast of the United States late in the period. Most of the dynamical models shows a track near the east coast of Florida and the southeast United States from days 3 through 5. The NHC track is largely unchanged through 48 hours, but has been adjusted slightly westward after that time, and is close to the consensus of the ECMWF and GFS. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track since strong winds, heavy rainfall, and a dangerous storm surge will extend far from the center of Matthew. Although some slight weakening due to land interaction is possible today, warm waters and a favorable upper-level wind pattern should allow Matthew to remain a very strong hurricane during the next couple of days. Gradual weakening is predicted later in the forecast period due to an increase in southwesterly shear and cooler SSTs, however Matthew is forecast to remain a hurricane during the entire 5 day period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in portions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other government officials in those countries. 2. Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches are likely later this morning for portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys. 3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther north. At a minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 17.8N 74.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 19.2N 74.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 21.0N 74.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 22.8N 75.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 24.6N 76.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 28.0N 79.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 31.7N 79.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 35.5N 75.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi
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