je.st
news
Tag: discussion
Tropical Depression Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 27
2021-08-06 10:39:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 06 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 060839 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Hilda Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 06 2021 Hilda has been reduced to a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds overnight with no organized deep convection. There has not been any recent scatterometer data to aid determining Hilda's intensity, but a blend of recent subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates support keeping the initial intensity at 30 kt. If Hilda fails to redevelop organized deep convection soon, an unlikely prospect since sea-surface temperatures under the depression are now around 22 C, the cyclone should soon become a remnant low, possibly as early as later this morning. Complete dissipation of the remnant low is expected by this weekend, well east of the Hawaiian Islands. The tropical depression is currently moving west-northwest at 300/10 kt. This heading is expected to continue until dissipation as the system moves along the southern periphery of a low-level ridge to its north. The latest NHC track forecast is largely an update from the previous one, though is a bit slower, following the tightly clustered track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 22.6N 133.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 23.0N 134.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0600Z 23.6N 136.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1800Z 24.1N 137.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-08-06 10:37:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 060837 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 PM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 Convection associated with Jimena has diminished some during the past few hours. However, recently-received ASCAT data showed 35 kt winds in a small area to the northwest of the center. Based mainly on this data, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. The storm is moving over cooler sea-surface temperatures, and that, along with increasing shear and a drier airmass, should cause the cyclone to decay into a remnant low by the 36 h point. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance and has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. The initial motion is northwestward or 310/7 kt. As Jimena weakens, the increasingly shallow system is expected to be steered by the low-level trade-wind flow, which should cause it to turn gradually to the west-northwest. The new official forecast has little change from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 17.2N 138.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 17.8N 139.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 18.5N 140.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 19.0N 142.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0600Z 19.3N 143.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/1800Z 19.5N 145.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Depression Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 26
2021-08-06 04:34:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 060234 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Hilda Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 The low-level center of Hilda has been partially exposed in visible satellite imagery as the system struggles to sustain any organized convection. Although a scatterometer pass around 1830 UTC showed winds near tropical-storm-force in the northeastern quadrant, the satellite presentation of Hilda has continued to deteriorate during the past several hours. Therefore, the initial intensity is maintained at 30 kt for this advisory. Gradual weakening is expected over the next day or so as Hilda moves over even cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment. These conditions should suppress new convective development, as suggested by the latest GFS and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery. Thus, the latest NHC official forecast shows Hilda degenerating into a remnant low on Friday. Thereafter, the weakening remnant low is forecast to open up into a trough on Saturday, well east of the Hawaiian Islands. Hilda is moving northwestward or 305/11 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn more west-northwestward overnight and maintain this heading through dissipation as it moves along the southern periphery of a low-level ridge to its north. The track models are still tightly clustered, and the official NHC forecast has only been adjusted to reflect the slower forward speed noted in the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 22.2N 132.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 22.8N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 23.5N 135.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1200Z 24.0N 137.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-08-06 04:31:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 060231 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 500 PM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 Jimena is approaching the Central Pacific basin. The compact tropical storm has generally changed little during the past several hours, and it continues to have curved bands that wrap across the western half of the circulation. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and the University of Wisconsin range from 35 to 45 kt. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, but Jimena could be a little stronger. Unfortunately, all of the ASCAT passes missed the system earlier today, but new data from the instrument may be available tonight. The storm continues to move northwestward at about 6 kt. A gradual turn to the left, or toward the west, is expected during the next few days as the storm loses deep convection and is steered primarily by the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the south of the previous one, trending toward the latest guidance. Jimena has now crossed the 26 C isotherm and is expected to move over progressively cooler waters during the next couple of days. These cool waters combined with a drier airmass and an increase in shear should cause steady weakening. Jimena is expected to become a remnant low by 36 hours and dissipate in a few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 16.9N 137.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 17.5N 138.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 18.2N 140.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 18.7N 141.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0000Z 19.0N 143.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/1200Z 19.4N 144.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-08-05 22:32:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 052032 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 Jimena's cloud pattern, which has changed little since earlier this morning, consists of a fragmented curved band in the northwestern semicircle and a patch of deep convection just to the southeast of the surface center. The subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain unchanged (T2.5) and the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. Jimena has about another 12 hours or so before it traverses decreasing (sub-25C) sea-surface temperatures, and the surrounding environment becomes less favorable due to an intruding dry and stable air mass. Increasing west-northwesterly shear is also expected to negatively affect the cyclone beyond the 36 hour period. The official intensity forecast, which is similar to the IVCN intensity consensus model, indicates Jimena becoming a depression in about 24 hours and further weakening to a remnant low on Saturday, and opening up into a trough of low pressure on Sunday. The initial motions is estimated to be northwest, or 310/7 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge situated to the northeast of the cyclone should keep Jimena moving toward the northwest through the 48 period. Afterward, a turn toward the west-northwest is forecast as the vertically shallow system is steered by the low-level environmental flow. The NHC track forecast, once again, follows the TVCN consensus aid closely, and is similar to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 16.4N 137.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 17.0N 138.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 17.9N 139.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 18.8N 141.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 19.7N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0600Z 20.2N 143.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Sites : [73] [74] [75] [76] [77] [78] [79] [80] [81] [82] [83] [84] [85] [86] [87] [88] [89] [90] [91] [92] next »