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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 2

2021-08-07 22:38:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 07 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 072038 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 07 2021 Visible satellite imagery has continued to show an improvement in the cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone today. Banding has increased over the western and southern portions of the circulation while a small CDO has developed near the center. Scatterometer data from around 1700 UTC revealed an area of 30-kt winds to the northwest of the center, but with the continued increase in organization and Dvorak T-numbers of T2.5 from both TAFB and SAB the initial wind speed has been increased to 35 kt. Kevin becomes the eleventh named storm in the eastern Pacific basin during the 2021 season, which is running about a month ahead of schedule as the eleventh named storm typically does not form until early-to-mid September. Kevin is located within an environment of low-to-moderate shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and a moist atmosphere. These conditions are expected to support steady strengthening over the next few days, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane in about 36 hours. There is some spread in the intensity guidance with the statistical guidance on the more aggressive side as compared to some of the dynamical models. The NHC wind speed forecast lies a little above the various consensus models but slightly below the SHIPS guidance. The storm is moving westward or 270/9 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge that extends across the subtropical eastern Pacific is forecast to steer Kevin generally westward during the next 36 hours. After that time, a cut-off low west of the Baja peninsula is expected to erode the western portion of the ridge causing Kevin to turn west- northwestward to northwestward through the remainder of the forecast period. The GFS, which depicts an unrealistic elongation of the system's low-level vorticity in about 48 hours, shows a much sharper northward or northwestward motion from 48-72 hours. Less weight was placed on that solution with the NHC track remaining closer to the bulk of the guidance and the various consensus aids. The latest track forecast is similar to, but a little slower than previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 15.8N 106.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 15.8N 108.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 15.7N 109.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 15.7N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 16.2N 111.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 17.3N 112.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 18.2N 114.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 19.9N 117.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 21.9N 122.2W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2021-08-07 16:52:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 071451 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021 Last night's METOP-A/B scatterometer overpasses indicated that the area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico had become a little better defined, and since that time, the system has developed sufficient organized convection to be designated as a tropical depression. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt and is in agreement with the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Modest northeasterly shear, warm sea surface temperatures and a moist surrounding low- to mid-level environment support steady strengthening during the next few days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight. The Statistical SHIPS (GFS/ECMWF), and the HCCA/IVCN multi-model intensity aids, all show that the cyclone will become a hurricane in about 48 hours, and the NHC forecast follows suit. The intensity forecast resembles the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models, and is just below the Decay SHIPS guidance. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/8 kt. The depression is being steered by a mid-tropospheric ridge stretching westward over the subtropical eastern Pacific from high pressure located over the northern Gulf of Mexico. A general westward motion with a similar forward speed is expected through early next week. Through the remaining portion of the forecast, a turn toward the west-northwest to northwest is expected due to a growing weakness in the aforementioned ridge. The official forecast is based on the TVCN multi-model consensus and lies between the GFS and ECMWF global models solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 15.9N 105.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 15.9N 106.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 15.9N 108.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 15.9N 109.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 16.2N 111.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 16.8N 112.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 18.0N 113.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 19.9N 117.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 21.7N 121.4W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Depression Jimena Forecast Discussion Number 16

2021-08-06 22:32:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 06 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 062032 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Jimena Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 06 2021 During the last 6 hours, deep convection associated with Jimena has waned. A recently arriving 1756 UTC ASCAT pass revealed peak believable winds of around 30 kt. The latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB have also decreased, and these data support lowering the initial intensity to 30 kt. Jimena is currently moving over SSTs near 24C and into a more stable air mass. In addition, westerly shear will increase along the cyclone's path during the next 12 hours. These factors should cause continued weakening, and Jimena is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by late tonight or early Saturday. The initial motion estimate is 295/7 kt. The west-northwestward motion is forecast to continue for another day or so, followed by a gradual bend to the west as Jimena weakens and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The new track forecast is slightly to the south of the previous NHC advisory, and is in best agreement with the HCCA and TVCN consensus models. Jimena is crossing into the central Pacific basin, and this will be the final NHC advisory on this system. Future information on Jimena can be found in Forecast/Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 0300 UTC under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP2 and WMO header WTPA22 PHFO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 17.6N 140.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 18.2N 141.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/1800Z 18.8N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0600Z 19.1N 143.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1800Z 19.2N 145.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Brown

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Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Discussion Number 15

2021-08-06 16:37:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Aug 06 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 061437 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 500 AM HST Fri Aug 06 2021 A convective mass continues to persist over the center of Jimena, although coldest cloud tops have warmed over the past few hours. A fortuitous 1105 UTC AMSR-2 pass shows the center a bit west of the earlier estimates, which places it beneath the coldest remaining cloud tops. The intensity is held at 35 kt based on a blend of Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB, SAB and ADT. This intensity is also supported by overnight ASCAT data and a more recent ship observation. Jimena is currently moving over SSTs near 24C. Going forward, westerly shear will increase along the cyclone's path during the next 12-24 hr. These factors should cause the tropical cyclone to weaken, and Jimena is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Saturday morning. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS and HCCA guidance. The initial motion estimate is 300/8 kt. As Jimena weakens, the increasingly shallow system is expected to be steered by the low-level trade-wind flow, which should cause it to gradually turn toward the west in about 48 hours. The ECMWF is a little faster and lies on the southwest side of the guidance envelope, while the GFS is slower and northeast of the consensus. The NHC forecast was adjusted to the southwest of the previous forecast during the first 12-24 hours based on the farther west initial position. Thereafter, the track is close to the previous forecast, and in best agreement with the HCCA and TVCN consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 17.5N 139.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 18.0N 140.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 18.7N 141.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0000Z 19.2N 143.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1200Z 19.5N 144.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 09/0000Z 19.6N 146.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Brown

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 28

2021-08-06 16:35:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 06 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 061435 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilda Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 06 2021 Hilda has been devoid of organized deep convection for at least 12 hours, and since the cyclone is moving over sub-23C sea surface temperatures, regeneration of deep convection is unlikely. Therefore, Hilda is designated as a 25 kt post-tropical remnant low, and this is the last advisory from National Hurricane Center. The low should continue to move further into a dry and stable air mass and over even cooler waters. Consequently, weakening is forecast and the remnant low of Hilda should open up into a trough of low pressure over the weekend. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/9 kt, and this general heading, within the low-level flow, is forecast to continue until dissipation. For additional information on Hilda please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 23.1N 134.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 07/0000Z 23.6N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/1200Z 24.1N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0000Z 24.5N 138.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

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