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Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 7A
2020-10-04 07:53:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 633 WTNT35 KNHC 040553 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 100 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 ...GAMMA MOVES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 88.2W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WNW OF CANCUN MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ENE OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North and west of Punta Allen to Dzilam Mexico, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 88.2 West. Gamma is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and a turn toward the north-northwest with decreasing forward speed is expected later today, followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest tonight or Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma will meander offshore of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico today, and pass near or just offshore of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some re-strengthening is expected during the next day or so now that the center of Gamma has moved back out over open water. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across northeastern Quintana Roo and northern Yucatan. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. A separate area of significant rain is possible in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and southeast Veracruz, with rainfall of 6 to 8 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. The storm will also result in an area of heavy rains to the south from southern Guatemala towards the Gulf of Fonseca region between eastern El Salvador, southern Honduras, and northwest Nicaragua, with accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula for the next few hours, and on the north coast of the Yucatan through today. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Gamma Graphics
2020-10-04 04:34:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2020 02:34:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2020 03:25:24 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gamma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-10-04 04:32:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 040231 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 0300 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) MERIDA MX 34 1 2( 3) 6( 9) 8(17) 4(21) 2(23) 2(25) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 7 3(10) 3(13) 1(14) 1(15) 1(16) 1(17) BELIZE CITY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Gamma (AT5/AL252020)
2020-10-04 04:31:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GAMMA DRENCHING THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 the center of Gamma was located near 21.3, -88.0 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 7
2020-10-04 04:31:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 040231 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 ...GAMMA DRENCHING THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 88.0W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNW OF TULUM MEXICO ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM E OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North and west of Punta Allen to Dzilam Mexico, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 88.0 West. Gamma is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and a turn toward the north-northwest with decreasing forward speed is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma will move offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and pass near or north of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across northeastern Quintana Roo and northern Yucatan. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. A separate area of significant rain is possible in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and southeast Veracruz, with rainfall of 6 to 8 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. The storm will also result in an area of heavy rains to the south from southern Guatemala towards the Gulf of Fonseca region between eastern El Salvador, southern Honduras, and northwest Nicaragua, with accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula for the next few hours, and on the north coast of the Yucatan through Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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