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Summary for Tropical Storm Gamma (AT5/AL252020)

2020-10-05 04:38:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...GAMMA CONTINUES TO DRIFT JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 the center of Gamma was located near 22.8, -87.2 with movement E at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Gamma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

2020-10-05 04:38:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 050238 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 0300 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MERIDA MX 34 1 2( 3) 6( 9) 5(14) 3(17) 2(19) 2(21) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) BELIZE CITY 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 11

2020-10-05 04:38:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 050238 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 ...GAMMA CONTINUES TO DRIFT JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 87.2W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ENE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM N OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Progreso to Campeche Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Dzilam to Campeche Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 87.2 West. The tropical storm is drifting toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h). Gamma is forecast to gradually turn toward the southwest or west-southwest on Monday and move slowly in that direction through mid-week. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma will continue to meander offshore of the northern Yucatan Peninsula tonight and pass near or just offshore of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Gradual weakening is anticipated to begin on Monday and continue into Tuesday. Afterward, little change in strength is forecast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on measurements from the hurricane hunter plane is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Yucatan, Campeche and Tabasco. This rainfall may enhance any ongoing flash flooding and result in new areas of flash flooding into the middle of the week. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area late Monday and Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Advisory Number 11

2020-10-05 04:38:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 050238 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 0300 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PROGRESO TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF DZILAM TO CAMPECHE MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 87.2W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 60SE 60SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 87.2W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 87.4W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.7N 87.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 40SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.3N 88.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.8N 89.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 21.3N 90.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.3N 90.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.2N 90.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 22.0N 90.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 24.0N 91.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 87.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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