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Post-Tropical Cyclone Florence Public Advisory Number 75

2018-09-18 04:50:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Florence Public Advisory Number 74

2018-09-17 23:19:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene Graphics

2018-09-16 16:44:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Sep 2018 14:44:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Sep 2018 14:44:50 GMT

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene Forecast Discussion Number 37

2018-09-16 16:43:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 413 WTNT43 KNHC 161443 TCDAT3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 Helene's cloud pattern has transformed into that of an extratropical cyclone, with a large area of cold cloud tops located well to the north and northwest of the center. An ASCAT pass that caught the eastern portion of the circulation revealed maximum winds of 40 to 45 kt, therefore the initial wind speed remains 45 kt for this advisory. The global models suggest that the system will strengthen slightly today due to baroclinic processes, and this is reflected in the official forecast. Weakening is anticipated by late Monday, and the system is forecast to be absorbed by a larger low pressure to the northwest of the United Kingdom by Tuesday morning. The cyclone is moving quickly northeastward or 055/25 kt. Now that the system is embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, a northeastward motion with some additional increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or so. The global models remain in good agreement on the track of the post-tropical low, and the new official forecast is an update of the previous advisory. This is the last NHC advisory on this system. Interests in Ireland and the United Kingdom should consult products from their local meteorological service for information about potential impacts from the post-tropical cyclone. Local forecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at https://www.met.ie/. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 43.8N 25.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 17/0000Z 45.8N 21.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 17/1200Z 49.0N 14.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 18/0000Z 52.8N 6.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37

2018-09-16 16:42:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 434 FONT13 KNHC 161442 PWSAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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