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Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy Graphics
2018-08-11 16:34:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 11 Aug 2018 14:34:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 11 Aug 2018 14:34:52 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 19
2018-08-11 16:33:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 11 2018 712 WTPZ43 KNHC 111433 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 11 2018 Cold waters and wind shear have taken a toll on Kristy. The cloud pattern has degenerated considerably, and it now consists of a tight swirl of low clouds with some patches of mid- to high-level clouds. It is estimated that the winds have decreased to 30 kt with some isolated spots of higher gusts. The cyclone will continue over cold waters, and although regeneration is not anticipated, some intermittent showers could still develop before dissipation occurs in a couple of days. Since the post-tropical cyclone is a shallow system, it is now being steered toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 4 kt by the low-level trade winds. This general motion with a gradual turn to the west is anticipated during the next day or so. This is the last advisory issued by NHC on this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 21.4N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 12/0000Z 21.8N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/1200Z 22.0N 132.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/0000Z 22.0N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/1200Z 22.5N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy (EP3/EP132018)
2018-08-11 16:32:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KRISTY DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 11 the center of Kristy was located near 21.4, -131.0 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy Public Advisory Number 19
2018-08-11 16:32:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 11 2018 583 WTPZ33 KNHC 111432 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 11 2018 ...KRISTY DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 131.0W ABOUT 1350 MI...2175 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 131.0 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a gradual turn to the west is expected during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. This system is forecast to dissipate in couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2018-08-11 16:32:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 11 2018 615 FOPZ13 KNHC 111432 PWSEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018 1500 UTC SAT AUG 11 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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