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Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Public Advisory Number 42A
2020-09-23 01:35:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 191 WTNT35 KNHC 222335 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 42A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 800 PM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 ...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY HEADING TOWARD THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST... ...DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.9N 64.2W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove * Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia * North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia * Magdalen Islands Quebec * Prince Edward Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy was located near latitude 41.9 North, longitude 64.2 West. Teddy is moving toward the north near 18 mph (29 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northeast is expected by early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday, and then near or over Newfoundland by Wednesday night, and be east of Labrador on Thursday. Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Although further weakening is likely tonight and Wednesday, Teddy should be a strong post-tropical cyclone when it moves near and over Nova Scotia. A weather station at Brier Island recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h), and a gust of 51 mph (81 km/h). Teddy is an extremely large post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 540 miles (870 km). Buoy 44150, located about 60 n mi north of the center, recently reported a significant wave height of 36 ft (11 m). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Nova Scotia warning area now. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch areas tonight or early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the Newfoundland warning area on Wednesday afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha Graphics
2020-09-19 04:37:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 02:37:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 02:37:45 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-09-19 04:36:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM GMT Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 190236 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL242020 300 AM GMT Sat Sep 19 2020 METEOSAT imagery, IPMA radar data, and surface observations indicate that Alpha has degenerated to a post-tropical remnant low just a few miles to the southeast of Viseu, Portugal. Therefore, this the last NHC advisory. Surface wind data support an initial intensity of 25 kt. The rapidly deteriorating small remnant low is expected to move generally toward the northeast at about 14 kt for the next 6 to 12 hours before dissipating over northern Spain by Saturday night. The NHC forecast track is basically an update of the previous advisory and lies between the tightly clustered deterministic guidance. Additional information on the hazards from this system can be found in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 40.9N 6.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 19/1200Z 42.6N 4.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-09-19 04:35:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 190235 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALPHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALPHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 6.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha (AT4/AL242020)
2020-09-19 04:35:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SHORT-LIVED ALPHA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW OVER THE DISTRICT OF VISEU PORTUGAL.. ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 3:00 AM GMT Sat Sep 19 the center of Alpha was located near 40.9, -6.9 with movement NE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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