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Post-Tropical Cyclone Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2020-09-17 04:34:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 156 FOPZ11 KNHC 170234 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Karina Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-09-17 04:34:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 170234 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 125.0W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 125.0W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 124.7W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.7N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 23.9N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.8N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.5N 129.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 125.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERIVCE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Graphics
2020-09-16 17:23:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 15:23:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 15:23:43 GMT
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paulette
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 39
2020-09-16 16:41:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 161440 TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 Conventional GOES-16 visible and enhanced BD-curve satellite imagery show that Paulette has merged with the large baroclinic zone extending over the north-central Atlantic. Deep convection just to the north of the surface center that was noted on earlier microwave images has dissipated. Therefore, the system is now classified as extratropical cyclone and this is the last NHC advisory. The initial intensity is conservatively lowered to 75 kt based on 1221 UTC scatterometer data, earlier Dvorak intensity estimates and a SATCON analysis of 64 kt. The NHC intensity forecast is based on a blend of the global models and is just above the HCCA multi-model consensus. Although not specified in the NHC forecast, there is some chance that Paulette could reacquire tropical or subtropical characteristics later this week or over the weekend when it turns southward back over warmer oceanic temperatures. This possibility will be monitored for inclusion in future Tropical Weather Outlooks, if necessary. The post-tropical cyclone's initial motion is east-northeastward, or 060/30 kt. The low is expected to continue quickly in this general motion through Thursday morning within the deep-layer mid-latitude flow. By mid-period, Post-Tropical Paulette is expected to slow down and turn southeastward to southward as it moves on the west side of mid- to upper-level low to the east of the cyclone. The new track forecast is based primarily on the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. Paulette is producing a large area of high seas. The maximum seas estimated by the Ocean Prediction Center near the core of the hurricane are up to 50 feet. Swells from Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette have spread far away from the center and continue to affect Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, and portions of the U.S. east coast. This is the last NHC advisory on Paulette. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 43.3N 45.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 17/0000Z 45.0N 39.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 17/1200Z 46.2N 35.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 18/0000Z 45.1N 33.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/1200Z 42.5N 32.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 19/0000Z 39.5N 32.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 19/1200Z 37.0N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 20/1200Z 35.0N 32.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 21/1200Z 34.0N 32.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-16 16:41:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PAULETTE BECOMES A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 16 the center of Paulette was located near 43.3, -45.2 with movement ENE at 35 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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at2al172020
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