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Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Public Advisory Number 8
2020-07-11 10:33:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 110832 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 ...FAY DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL LOW OVER EASTERN NEW YORK... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.4N 73.9W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF ALBANY NEW YORK MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay was located near latitude 42.4 North, longitude 73.9 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 17 mph (28 km/h). A north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected today, tonight and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the post-tropical cyclone will continue to move across portions of eastern New York this morning, then across northwestern New England later today and over southeastern Canada tonight and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next day so, and the post-tropical cyclone is likely to dissipate by late Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The post-tropical cyclone is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of rain with isolated maxima of 4 inches along and near its track from eastern New York into portions of New England. This rain may result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor drainage where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected; however, rapid rises on small streams and isolated minor flooding is possible. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-07-11 10:32:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 110831 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020 0900 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.4N 73.9W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 0SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.4N 73.9W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.5N 74.2W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 45.3N 72.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 49.0N 70.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 52.5N 67.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.4N 73.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Edouard Graphics
2020-07-06 22:36:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 06 Jul 2020 20:36:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 06 Jul 2020 21:24:48 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Edouard Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-07-06 22:34:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Jul 06 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 062033 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Edouard Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 500 PM AST Mon Jul 06 2020 Although Edouard continues to produce some deep convection, recent satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that the center of the cyclone has merged with a frontal boundary. Therefore, the system is now classified as extratropical and this is the last advisory. The scatterometer data showed max winds of 35-40 kt, so the initial intensity remains 40 kt. The 35 kt wind radii were also increased in the southeast quadrant based on the scatterometer data. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to continue moving quickly northeastward for the next day or so until it is absorbed into a larger frontal zone over the north Atlantic late Tuesday or early Wednesday. The NHC track and intensity forecast is close to the global model consensus, and all of those models are in good agreement for the next 24 h. This is the last NHC advisory on Edouard. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 42.7N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 07/0600Z 45.1N 40.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 07/1800Z 48.5N 33.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Edouard Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-07-06 22:34:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 062033 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020 2100 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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