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Post-Tropical Cyclone One-E Graphics
2020-04-26 22:36:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 26 Apr 2020 20:36:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 26 Apr 2020 20:36:10 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone One-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-04-26 22:35:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Apr 26 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 262035 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone One-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012020 200 PM PDT Sun Apr 26 2020 The cyclone has lacked significant organized deep convection for at least 10 hours, and the system is moving into increasingly more stable air and over sub-25C deg C SSTs. Therefore, the depression has been downgraded to a post-tropical remnant low. The initial intensity is 25 kt is based on several 23-25 kt wind vectors located n-e of the low-level center in a 1718 UTC ASCAT-A overpass. Although the system may still produce some sporadic convection late tonight during the convective maximum period, dry and stable air along with strong westerly shear will likely prevent any appreciable convection from persisting over the next day or so. This should cause the remnant low to weaken and then open up into a trough in 36-48 hours. The initial motion remains 305/08 kt. A substantial low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to gradually nudge the shallow low toward the west-northwest later this afternoon, followed by a westward motion tonight, with that motion continuing until the system dissipates Monday night. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php . FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 16.2N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 27/0600Z 16.7N 120.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 27/1800Z 17.1N 122.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/0600Z 17.3N 125.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Post-Tropical Cyclone One-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-04-26 22:34:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN APR 26 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 262034 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012020 2100 UTC SUN APR 26 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone One-E (EP1/EP012020)
2020-04-26 22:34:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Apr 26 the center of One-E was located near 16.2, -119.4 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone One-E Public Advisory Number 6
2020-04-26 22:34:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Apr 26 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 262034 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone One-E Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012020 200 PM PDT Sun Apr 26 2020 ...DEPRESSION DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 119.4W ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone One-E was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 119.4 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest is expected by late afternoon, followed by a turn toward the west tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system is expected to dissipate by Monday tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Stewart
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