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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gilma Forecast Advisory Number 13
2018-07-29 22:49:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 29 2018 058 WTPZ23 KNHC 292049 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082018 2100 UTC SUN JUL 29 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 139.7W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 139.7W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 139.1W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.2N 141.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.1N 143.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.9N 146.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 139.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON GILMA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Gilma Graphics
2018-07-29 16:43:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jul 2018 14:43:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jul 2018 14:43:09 GMT
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Tropical Depression Gilma Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-07-29 16:41:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 29 2018 256 WTPZ43 KNHC 291441 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 29 2018 Gilma is on its way in becoming a remnant low. Very strong west-northwesterly shear has pushed all of the associated convection well away from the center, leaving a completely exposed low-level swirl. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, in agreement with a blend of the Dvorak Final T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Now that Gilma is located to the west of an upper-level trough axis, strong west-northwesterly shear is expected to continue. These hostile winds aloft, plus marginal SSTs and dry air, should cause Gilma to become a remnant low later today and ultimately degenerate into a trough in 2 to 3 days. The depression is moving westward at 12 kt, steered by the flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. This general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected until the system dissipates. Little change was made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this one lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 15.9N 138.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 16.0N 140.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 30/1200Z 15.9N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 31/0000Z 15.7N 144.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/1200Z 15.5N 147.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Gilma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2018-07-29 16:41:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 29 2018 044 FOPZ13 KNHC 291441 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082018 1500 UTC SUN JUL 29 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression Gilma (EP3/EP082018)
2018-07-29 16:40:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...GILMA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Jul 29 the center of Gilma was located near 15.9, -138.5 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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