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Tropical Depression Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2020-10-15 04:37:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 15 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 150237 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0300 UTC THU OCT 15 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 25
2020-10-15 04:36:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 15 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 150236 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0300 UTC THU OCT 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 115.7W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 115.7W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 115.5W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.7N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 115.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Norbert Graphics
2020-10-14 22:34:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 14 Oct 2020 20:34:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 14 Oct 2020 20:34:22 GMT
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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 24
2020-10-14 22:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 142033 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2020 Vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air are clearly taking a toll on Norbert. Infrared cloud top temperatures have rapidly warmed as Norbert has lost most, if not all, of its deep convection. Water vapor imagery shows a tongue of dry air drawn into the cyclone's circulation by a mid-level low pressure system centered to the west of Norbert. If current trends continue, Norbert could degenerate into a remnant low tonight or early Thursday. The advisory intensity is lowered to 30 kt based on a 1750Z ASCAT-B overpass that showed 25-30 kt winds in the northern semicircle of Norbert. This is consistent with T2.0 subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB. Norbert has moved a bit faster than was previously forecast, and its initial motion is estimated at 330/15 kt. The track guidance consensus depicts a northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed through tonight as the depression moves between a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the aforementioned mid-level low. A slow northward turn is expected on Thursday. The NHC track forecast was adjusted slightly to the right of the previous forecast based on 12Z global model trends. Norbert will continue weakening during the next day or so in an environment characterized by 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear, dry mid-level air, and low oceanic heat content. The official intensity forecast shows remnant low status at 24 h and dissipation at 36 h, which is consistent with the consensus of reliable global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 24.7N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 25.9N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 26.9N 115.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression Norbert (EP4/EP192020)
2020-10-14 22:32:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SHEARED NORBERT WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 the center of Norbert was located near 24.7, -114.9 with movement NNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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