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Tropical Storm Norbert Graphics

2020-10-14 04:38:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 14 Oct 2020 02:38:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 14 Oct 2020 03:24:30 GMT

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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 21

2020-10-14 04:37:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 140236 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2020 Norbert has increased in organization this evening, with a pair of microwave passes as well as infrared satellite imagery showing a tightly curved band of convection wrapping about halfway around the low-level center. In addition, a well-defined outflow pattern is surrounding the cyclone in the current low-shear environment. Based on these developmental trends, the initial intensity has been increased to 35 kt, which is in agreement with the latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB. There is only about a 12-18 h opportunity for Norbert to maintain its current strength or perhaps intensify a little more before it reaches a hostile environment just to its north. By 24 h, the cyclone is forecast to encounter strong southwesterly shear and a dry and stable atmospheric environment, while moving over cooler waters. Therefore, the cyclone should start weakening by 24 h and should degenerate into a remnant low devoid of deep convection by 48 h. The model guidance indicates the remnant low should dissipate very soon thereafter. The latest NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest consensus intensity guidance, and is only higher than the previous NHC forecast due to the increase in the initial intensity. Norbert has been moving northwestward at around 13 kt since this afternoon as the cyclone has been steered between a deep-layer ridge centered over northern Mexico and an upper-level low offshore of Baja California. As the upper low shifts westward over the next day or so, Norbert's forward speed should decrease. What remains of Norbert should then turn northward on Thursday within the low-level flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 21.0N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 22.4N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 24.2N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 25.5N 115.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 26.5N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

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Summary for Tropical Storm Norbert (EP4/EP192020)

2020-10-14 04:37:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...NORBERT STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING ON WEDNESDAY... As of 9:00 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 the center of Norbert was located near 21.0, -112.7 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21

2020-10-14 04:37:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 14 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 140236 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0300 UTC WED OCT 14 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 115W 34 X 8( 8) 9(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 25N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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