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Tropical Storm NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-09-03 22:56:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED SEP 03 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 032056 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 200 PM PDT WED SEP 03 2014 Satellite images indicate that Norbert is still on an intensification trend. While no eye is apparent in visible imagery, recent microwave imagery indicates that an eye is trying to form. The cyclone has a long curved band around the southern and western semicircle wrapping into the small central dense overcast. A blend of the subjective and objective Dvorak estimates gives 60 kt as the initial wind speed. It is hard to find a reason why Norbert will not significantly intensify during the next day or so since it will remain over very warm waters, the shear does not appear to be that detrimental, and it already has many features of an inner core. Yet the best model guidance is lower than 6 hours ago, with no forecast above 80 kt for a peak intensity. With so many favorable environmental factors and the low model bias observed this season (and this cyclone), the new NHC forecast will stay close to the previous one. Weakening should begin in a few days when Norbert moves over cooler waters and into the more stable atmosphere of the subtropical eastern Pacific Ocean. After a brief westward track, Norbert appears to be moving more to the west-northwest, or 300/6. Global models are in good agreement on a weakening ridge over northwestern Mexico forcing the storm to move northwestward over the next few days. Model guidance is well clustered on a track offshore of Baja Califoria Sur, except for the GFDL which has a known northward bias in this region. Norbert is still expected to pass close enough to bring tropical- storm-force winds to portions of the state. The new forecast is a little farther south of the previous one during the first 24 hours, mostly because of the earlier westward motion. Little change has been made to the rest of the forecast, which is just to the west of the dynamical track consensus. Moisture from the combination of Norbert and the remnants of Atlantic Tropical Storm Dolly is expected to spread northwestward across northern Mexico during the next couple of days, and into the southwestern United States over the weekend. Heavy rain causing life-threatening flash flooding are possible in those regions. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 19.6N 109.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 20.1N 110.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 20.9N 110.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 21.9N 111.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 23.0N 112.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 24.5N 114.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 26.0N 116.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 28.0N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm NORBERT Forecast Advisory Number 6
2014-09-03 22:55:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 03 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 032055 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 2100 UTC WED SEP 03 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ MEXICO TO SAN EVARISTO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA PAZ TO SANTA FE MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO * NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 109.2W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 150SE 150SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 109.2W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 109.0W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.1N 110.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.9N 110.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.9N 111.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.0N 112.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 24.5N 114.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 26.0N 116.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 28.0N 118.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 109.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm NORBERT Graphics
2014-09-03 19:44:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2014 17:44:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2014 15:04:31 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm NORBERT (EP4/EP142014)
2014-09-03 19:43:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORBERT ALMOST A HURRICANE... As of 11:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 3 the center of NORBERT was located near 19.5, -109.1 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm NORBERT Public Advisory Number 5A
2014-09-03 19:43:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM PDT WED SEP 03 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 031743 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 1100 AM PDT WED SEP 03 2014 ...NORBERT ALMOST A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 109.1W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA PAZ TO SANTA FE MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. NORBERT SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THAT GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE PENINSULA ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...AND CONTINUE STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY AND THURSDAY...AND PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. LARGE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY THURSDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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