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Summary for Tropical Storm NORBERT (EP4/EP142014)
2014-09-03 13:53:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORBERT TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 5:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 3 the center of NORBERT was located near 19.7, -108.3 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm NORBERT Public Advisory Number 4A
2014-09-03 13:53:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM PDT WED SEP 03 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 031153 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 500 AM PDT WED SEP 03 2014 ...NORBERT TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 108.3W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA PAZ TO SANTA FE MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER THIS MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY... WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THURSDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER COLIMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF MICHOACAN AND JALISCO IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY AND THURSDAY...AND PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. LARGE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY THURSDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm NORBERT Graphics
2014-09-03 11:13:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2014 09:02:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Sep 2014 09:05:34 GMT
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Tropical Storm NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 4
2014-09-03 10:56:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED SEP 03 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 030856 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 200 AM PDT WED SEP 03 2014 The convective cloud pattern of Norbert has improved significantly since the previous advisory. A pronounced CDO feature has developed with two distinct convective bands wrapping into the center. A 0432 UTC AMSU microwave indicated that a small mid-level eye feature could be trying to form. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were a consensus T3.0/45 kt at 0600 UTC, and UW-CIMSS ADT values have been steadily increasing and are now T3.7/59 kt. Based on these intensity estimates, the continued improvement in the cloud pattern, and the small radius of maximum winds, the advisory intensity is conservatively set at 50 kt. The initial motion estimate is still northwestward or 305/07 kt. Norbert is forecast to move in a general northwestward direction around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge that stretches westward across northern Mexico and Baja California. This motion, accompanied by a slight decrease in forward speed, is expected to persist throughout the forecast period. The NHC model guidance has shifted slightly to the right again, but the size of the guidance envelope has decreased, showing much less spread on this cycle. The official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track through 36 hours, and then is somewhat to right of the previous forecast after that. The combination of the small radius of maximum winds, 29.5C SSTs, a moist mid-level environment, and vertical shear decreasing to around 10 kt suggests that Norbert should at least intensity at the typical rate of 20-25 kt per day for the next 36 hours or so. However, if thew shear decrease more than currently expected, then rapid intensification during the next 24 hours is a very distinct possibility. By 96 hours and beyond, Norbert will be moving over SSTs less than 26.5C, which should induce slow weakening. NHC intensity forecast is above the previous forecast, and closely follows the SHIPS intensity model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 19.6N 107.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 20.0N 108.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 20.6N 109.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 21.4N 110.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 22.3N 110.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 24.0N 112.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 25.1N 115.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 26.2N 117.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm NORBERT (EP4/EP142014)
2014-09-03 10:55:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORBERT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 3 the center of NORBERT was located near 19.6, -107.6 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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