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Summary for Tropical Storm Fay (AT1/AL062020)

2020-07-11 01:42:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...FAY WEAKENING AS THE CENTER MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW JERSEY... As of 8:00 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 the center of Fay was located near 40.1, -74.3 with movement N at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 6A

2020-07-11 01:42:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 102342 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 800 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 ...FAY WEAKENING AS THE CENTER MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW JERSEY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.1N 74.3W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Great Egg Inlet New Jersey to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long Island and Long Island Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located over eastern New Jersey near latitude 40.1 North, longitude 74.3 West. Fay is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected tonight and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Fay will move near or over portions of the New Jersey coast this evening and then move inland over southeastern New York and western New England tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected tonight, especially after Fay moves farther inland. Fay is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by Saturday morning and dissipate on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km), mainly over water to the east and southeast of the center. NOAA buoy 44065 recently reported sustained winds of 33 mph (54 km/h) and a wind gust of 43 mph (68 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches along and near its track from northern Delaware and eastern Pennsylvania northeast across New Jersey, southeast New York, and portions of New England. This rain could result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor drainage where the heaviest amounts occur. Rapid rises on small streams and isolated minor flooding is possible, but widespread river flooding is not expected. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward within the warning area through tonight. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two are possible this evening across coastal areas of New Jersey, southeast New York, and southern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Fay Graphics

2020-07-11 01:41:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 23:41:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 22:41:46 GMT

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Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

2020-07-11 00:43:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 102243 CCA PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020 2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 CORRECTED PROBABILITIES IN TABLE AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CONCORD NH 34 2 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 20 5(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) BOSTON MA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 68 1(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 54 X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) HARTFORD CT 34 35 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) NEW LONDON CT 34 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ALBANY NY 34 11 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 32 X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) POUGHKEEPSIE 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ISLIP NY 34 81 X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) ISLIP NY 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 88 X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 65 X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 60 X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) NEWARK NJ 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 17 X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NWS EARLE NJ 34 87 X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) PHILADELPHIA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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