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Summary for Tropical Storm Gonzalo (AT2/AL072020)
2020-07-24 01:23:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GONZALO STILL HEADING DUE WEST... ...EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY... As of 8:00 PM AST Thu Jul 23 the center of Gonzalo was located near 9.7, -49.9 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 9A
2020-07-24 01:23:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 232323 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 800 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 ...GONZALO STILL HEADING DUE WEST... ...EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.7N 49.9W ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tobago * Grenada A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for some of these islands tonight or on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 9.7 North, longitude 49.9 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands Friday night and move across the islands Saturday and into the eastern Caribbean Sea Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and there is still a chance that Gonzalo could become a hurricane. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves into the Caribbean Sea. Gonzalo is a compact tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible within the respective watch areas on Saturday. RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in Barbados and the Windward Islands from Friday night through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in Trinidad and Tobago. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Graphics
2020-07-23 22:42:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 20:42:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 20:42:43 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-07-23 22:42:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 232041 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 Scatterometer data received just after the release of the previous advisory only showed winds of 40-45 kt, but given Gonzalo's small size, it's unlikely that the resolution of the instrument was able to capture the maximum winds. Even correcting for that, Gonzalo's winds were lowered to 50 kt on the 2 PM intermediate advisory, and that still looks good now with satellite intensity estimates ranging from 35 kt to 55 kt. Structure-wise, deep convection has redeveloped on top of Gonzalo's center, so the storm is not ready to give up its fight quite yet. There is still greater-than-normal uncertainty in Gonzalo's forecast intensity due to its small size and how it will behave in an environment of relatively light shear and warm sea surface temperatures counterbalanced by a lot of dry air. The statistical and dynamical hurricane models continue to show strengthening, while several of the global models, in particular the ECMWF and UKMET, still show Gonzalo weakening and opening up into a trough near or after it passes the Windward Islands. Based on the lower initial intensity and the latest guidance, the new official forecast has been lowered slightly, but it still brings Gonzalo to the hurricane threshold in 36-48 hours. Either way, Gonzalo's small size makes it susceptible to short-term changes in intensity that cannot be reflected in the official forecast. There is more confidence that weakening will occur after Gonzalo moves over the Caribbean Sea, with even the GFS showing the system becoming a trough. Given that, dissipation is now shown in the forecast at day 5. Gonzalo's initial motion is westward, or 275/11 kt. There has been no change in the track forecast reasoning, with Gonzalo expected to accelerate toward the west and west-northwest through the forecast period. The track guidance is fairly tightly clustered, showing Gonzalo's center crossing somewhere through the Windward Islands between 48-60 hours. Some of the models shifted northward a bit on this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has therefore been nudged in that direction close to the multi-model consensus aids, HCCA, and the Florida State Superensemble. However, users should not focus on these relatively small shifts in the forecast track from cycle to cycle, and for the Windward Islands in particular, consider that 48-60 hour forecast points can be off by an average of 60-80 nm. Key Messages 1. The risk of wind and rain impacts from Gonzalo in portions of the southern Windward Islands this weekend continues to increase, however there is significant uncertainty in how strong Gonzalo will be when it moves across the islands. 2. Despite the uncertainty in Gonzalo's future intensity, hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the southern Windward Islands Saturday and Saturday night. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches are currently in effect some of the islands, and additional watches or warnings could be required tonight or early Friday. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 9.8N 49.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 10.0N 51.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 10.5N 53.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 11.1N 56.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 12.0N 59.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 13.0N 62.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 13.8N 65.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 14.5N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-07-23 22:42:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 232041 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 2100 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) X(20) X(20) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 27(35) 1(36) X(36) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 7(26) X(26) X(26) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 1(22) X(22) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRINIDADTOBAGO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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