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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 5
2020-07-22 22:31:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 222031 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 PM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 ...GONZALO MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.9N 45.0W ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 9.9 North, longitude 45.0 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo would approach the Windward Islands late Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane by Thursday. Gonzalo is a small tropical cyclone, as tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-07-22 22:31:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 222031 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 2100 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 45.0W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 45.0W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 44.4W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 10.0N 46.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 10.1N 49.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 10.3N 51.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 10.8N 54.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 11.3N 57.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 12.1N 60.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 14.0N 67.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 15.0N 72.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.9N 45.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Graphics
2020-07-22 16:42:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 22 Jul 2020 14:42:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Jul 2020 15:24:53 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-07-22 16:39:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 221439 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that the cyclone has become significantly better organized since the last advisory. Visible imagery shows a well-defined central dense overcast with a hint of an eye and an outer convective band in the western semicircle, while a 09Z GMI microwave overpass showed a well-defined inner convective ring feature. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 35-55 kt, so the initial intensity is raised to a possibly conservative 45 kt. The initial motion is now 270/10. Gonzalo is on the south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge, and this feature should steer the storm generally westward at a faster forward speed for the next 3 days or so. After that time, a motion toward the west-northwest is expected. The new NHC forecast track is little changed from the previous track, and it lies very close to the consensus models. The intensity forecast remains very problematic and of low confidence. On one side, the cyclone has been strengthening quickly and the good organization suggests additional, and possibly rapid, strengthening should occur. In addition, the SHIPS-based guidance and the HWRF make the system a hurricane and keep that intensity through 120 h. On the other side, the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, and Canadian models are not big fans of this system, as they all forecast it to either be a weak low or dissipated by 120 h, possibly due to dry air entrainment and large-scale subsidence. The NHC intensity forecast again compromises between these extremes, showing Gonzalo peaking as a hurricane in 36-48 h, followed by weakening in deference to the global models. The new intensity forecast has significantly higher intensities than the previous forecast for most of the forecast period based on the recent intensification. As noted before, the small size of this system makes it susceptible to significant fluctuations in intensity, both upward and downward. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Gonzalo is the earliest 7th named storm on record in the Atlantic basin, beating Gert of 2005 by 2 days. Key Messages 1. Gonzalo is expected to move near or over the southern Windward Islands this weekend, and could bring direct impacts from winds and heavy rainfall. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude and timing of those impacts, interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 9.9N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 10.0N 45.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 10.0N 47.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 10.1N 50.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 10.4N 52.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 10.7N 55.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 11.4N 58.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 13.0N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 15.0N 71.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-07-22 16:39:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 221439 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 1500 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 1(19) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) X(18) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 1(22) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) X(19) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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