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Hurricane GONZALO Graphics
2014-10-18 22:47:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 18 Oct 2014 20:47:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 18 Oct 2014 20:41:44 GMT
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Hurricane GONZALO Forecast Discussion Number 26
2014-10-18 22:42:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 182041 TCDAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014 After an earlier degradation of the convective cloud pattern, Gonzalo has made a recent comeback with the cloud shield having become more symmetrical and the eye a little better defined. The initial intensity of 80 kt is being maintained at 80 kt based on an 1443 UTC ASCAT-A overpass which showed a peak of 77 kt in the eastern quadrant and the improved satellite presentation. The same overpass also indicated that the 64-, 50-, and 34-kt wind radii had expanded, and this is indicated in the new initial wind radii. Gonzalo is accelerating rapidly northeastward and is now moving at a brisk 035/31 kt. The hurricane has become deeply embedded within the strong southwesterly flow on the east side of a high amplitude trough located over the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada. Gonzalo is expected to move northeastward for the next 24 hours or so and then turn east-northeastward over the far north Atlantic on Day 2. The official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and closely follows the consensus model TVCA. The post-tropical portion of the track forecast has been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. As Gonzalo continues to gain latitude, the cyclone's wind field should continue to expand, accompanied by only slow weakening. Gonzalo will be moving over sub-20C SSTs by 12 hours and be under southwesterly vertical wind shear of more than 30 kt, which is expected to result in transition to a strong post-tropical extratropical cyclone by 24 hours. Gradual weakening is expected after the transition occurs until dissipation occurs in about 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follows the Decay-SHIPS model through 24 hours, and then is based on input from the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 39.3N 60.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 44.0N 54.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 49.6N 45.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 20/0600Z 52.5N 31.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/1800Z 55.5N 17.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Hurricane GONZALO (AT3/AL082014)
2014-10-18 22:41:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GONZALO ACCELERATING RAPIDLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS A HURRICANE... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Oct 18 the center of GONZALO was located near 39.3, -60.0 with movement NNE at 36 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane GONZALO Forecast Advisory Number 26
2014-10-18 22:41:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTNT23 KNHC 182041 TCMAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 2100 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR... * ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 60.0W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 31 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 140SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..340NE 320SE 260SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 60.0W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 61.0W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 44.0N 54.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT...110NE 150SE 100SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 210SE 170SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 49.6N 45.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 170SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 270SE 200SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 52.5N 31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 100SE 150SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 320SE 320SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 55.5N 17.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 180SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 360SE 430SW 480NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.3N 60.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane GONZALO Public Advisory Number 26
2014-10-18 22:41:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 182041 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014 ...GONZALO ACCELERATING RAPIDLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.3N 60.0W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...57 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR... * ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.0 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 36 MPH...57 KM/H. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED MAINTAIN THIS DIRECTION OF MOTION TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE TO OR JUST SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY LATE SUNDAY WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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