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Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-08-05 22:32:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 052032 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 Jimena's cloud pattern, which has changed little since earlier this morning, consists of a fragmented curved band in the northwestern semicircle and a patch of deep convection just to the southeast of the surface center. The subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain unchanged (T2.5) and the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. Jimena has about another 12 hours or so before it traverses decreasing (sub-25C) sea-surface temperatures, and the surrounding environment becomes less favorable due to an intruding dry and stable air mass. Increasing west-northwesterly shear is also expected to negatively affect the cyclone beyond the 36 hour period. The official intensity forecast, which is similar to the IVCN intensity consensus model, indicates Jimena becoming a depression in about 24 hours and further weakening to a remnant low on Saturday, and opening up into a trough of low pressure on Sunday. The initial motions is estimated to be northwest, or 310/7 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge situated to the northeast of the cyclone should keep Jimena moving toward the northwest through the 48 period. Afterward, a turn toward the west-northwest is forecast as the vertically shallow system is steered by the low-level environmental flow. The NHC track forecast, once again, follows the TVCN consensus aid closely, and is similar to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 16.4N 137.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 17.0N 138.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 17.9N 139.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 18.8N 141.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 19.7N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0600Z 20.2N 143.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm Jimena (EP4/EP092021)
2021-08-05 22:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JIMENA EXPECTED TO BECOME A DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY... As of 11:00 AM HST Thu Aug 5 the center of Jimena was located near 16.4, -137.6 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Jimena Public Advisory Number 12
2021-08-05 22:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 052031 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jimena Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 ...JIMENA EXPECTED TO BECOME A DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 137.6W ABOUT 1855 MI...2980 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jimena was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 137.6 West. Jimena is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours. Afterward, Jimena is expected to become a depression on Friday and degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-08-05 22:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 052031 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 2100 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 137.6W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 137.6W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 137.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.0N 138.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.9N 139.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.8N 141.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.7N 142.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.2N 143.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 137.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Jimena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2021-08-05 22:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 052031 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 2100 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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