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Tropical Storm Jimena Graphics
2021-08-05 16:39:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Aug 2021 14:39:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Aug 2021 14:39:07 GMT
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Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-08-05 16:37:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 051437 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 500 AM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Jimena's cloud pattern has changed little during the past several hours, although most recently, enhanced infrared images show some warming of the cloud tops just west of the center. Timely AMSR-2 and GMI passive microwave color composite images revealed a well-developed banding feature wrapping around the surface center from the north and west portions of the cyclone. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt and is in agreement with the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The large-scale models and the statistical-dynamical SHIPS intensity guidance (GFS/ECMWF) show that the previously noted period of conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions should be ending soon. By the 36-hour period, sub-25C sea-surface temperatures and a gradually stabilizing/drier surrounding air mass should cause Jimena to weaken. Guidance also shows increasing west-northwesterly shear beyond 48 hours. Accordingly, the NHC forecast calls for Jimena to weaken to a depression by mid-period, and degenerate into a remnant low in 60 hours. Based on the aforementioned microwave images, the initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 315/6 kt. A subtropical ridge anchored to the northeast of the cyclone is forecast to steer Jimena toward the northwest through the 48 period. Afterward, a turn toward the west-northwest is expected as the vertically shallow system is influenced more by the easterly tradewinds. The official forecast is basically an update of the previous one and lies near the multi-model consensus (TVCN) aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 16.1N 137.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 16.5N 137.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 17.5N 138.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 18.5N 140.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 19.5N 141.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 20.3N 142.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1200Z 20.9N 144.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm Jimena (EP4/EP092021)
2021-08-05 16:37:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JIMENA CONTINUES ON A NORTHWESTWARD HEADING... ...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 AM HST Thu Aug 5 the center of Jimena was located near 16.1, -137.2 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Jimena Public Advisory Number 11
2021-08-05 16:37:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 051436 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jimena Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 500 AM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 ...JIMENA CONTINUES ON A NORTHWESTWARD HEADING... ...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 137.2W ABOUT 1835 MI...2955 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jimena was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 137.2 West. Jimena is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours. Afterward, Jimena is expected to become a depression by Friday evening and degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low early Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Jimena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2021-08-05 16:37:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 051436 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 1500 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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