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Hurricane Zeta Public Advisory Number 14A
2020-10-28 06:53:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 280553 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 100 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 ...ZETA RE-STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... ...FORECAST TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS, STARTING IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 91.5W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM S OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida * Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 91.5 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected overnight, and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion is expected today. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the central Gulf of Mexico overnight. Zeta is forecast to make landfall in southeastern Louisiana this afternoon, move close to the Mississippi coast this evening, and move across the southeastern and eastern United States on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely overnight and this morning, and Zeta is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane before weakening over the southeastern United States on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (50 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to the east of the center. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...5-8 ft Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne...4-6 ft Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...2-4 ft AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast by late today, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area this afternoon. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday night. RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains in advance of Zeta will continue to expand and move north from the central Gulf Coast this morning through today, eventually affecting the Ohio Valley to the central Appalachians tonight and Thursday. Meanwhile, the core of heavy rains near Zeta will track from the central Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic late today through late Thursday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. Zeta may produce an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain across portions of western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through the early morning hours. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight over southeastern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Latto
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Tropical Storm Zeta Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2020-10-28 04:42:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 28 Oct 2020 03:42:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm Zeta Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2020-10-28 04:33:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 28 Oct 2020 03:33:10 GMT
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Tropical Storm Zeta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-10-28 03:56:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 28 Oct 2020 02:56:03 GMT
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Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-10-28 03:55:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 280255 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 Satellite images show that Zeta is becoming better organized tonight with a ragged eye feature now present, plenty of deep convection and a more symmetric appearance. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has found increasing winds on this flight, recently recording peak flight-level winds of 65 kt and a minimum pressure of around 990 mb. The initial wind speed is raised to 60 kt on the basis of the wind data. The improving cloud pattern of Zeta is usually one that favors intensification in the short term. In addition, microwave data from a couple hours ago indicated that a 37 GHz low-level ring was present, which also can be a harbinger of strengthening, and sometimes that strengthening is on the rapid side. Since the storm remains over warm water with fairly light shear, the NHC forecast still anticipates Zeta regaining hurricane intensity within the next 6 hours and making a second landfall as a hurricane. The new NHC forecast is a little higher than the previous one, remaining on the high side of the guidance. After landfall, Zeta is likely to become an extratropical cyclone while it approaches the eastern United States in a couple of days, and become absorbed by the same frontal system. Zeta is moving northwestward a little faster tonight (325/13 kt). The storm is expected to turn northward and move along the western side of a mid-level anticyclone centered east of Florida through Wednesday morning. A deep cold low (responsible for the southern Plains ice storm) approaching from the west will cause Zeta to sharply accelerate north-northeastward and move inland along the southeastern Louisiana coast Wednesday afternoon. The cyclone should continue to accelerate ahead of the trough and move over the southeastern and eastern U.S. through Thursday. Similar to the last forecast, the official track forecast was moved slightly westward during the first 24 hours, not too dissimilar from a consensus of the latest GFS, UKMET and ECMWF forecasts. Given Zeta's acceleration near landfall, strong winds are likely to spread well inland along the northern Gulf coast Wednesday night. KEY MESSAGES: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the northern Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with the highest inundation occurring somewhere between the Mouth of the Pearl River and Dauphin Island, Alabama. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected Wednesday afternoon within portions of the Hurricane Warning area between Morgan City, Louisiana, and the Mississippi/Alabama border. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday night due to Zeta's fast forward speed. 3. Localized heavy rainfall from Zeta will continue tonight in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and western Cuba where additional flash flooding is possible in urban areas. Between tonight and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 23.8N 91.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 26.0N 91.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 30.2N 89.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/1200Z 35.0N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 30/0000Z 39.5N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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