je.st

Home › zeta

Tag: zeta

Hurricane Zeta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2020-10-27 03:47:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 27 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 270246 PWSAT3 HURRICANE ZETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 0300 UTC TUE OCT 27 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS ...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) X(24) X(24) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) X(27) X(27) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) X(24) X(24) DANVILLE VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) X(24) X(24) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) X(22) X(22) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) X(19) X(19) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 28(35) X(35) X(35) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) X(20) X(20) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) X(34) X(34) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 35(44) X(44) X(44) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 33(45) X(45) X(45) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 10(34) X(34) X(34) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 22(22) 31(53) X(53) X(53) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) X(17) X(17) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 21(54) X(54) X(54) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) X(20) X(20) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 15(50) X(50) X(50) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) X(19) X(19) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 52(54) 11(65) X(65) X(65) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 46(63) 4(67) X(67) X(67) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 10(46) X(46) X(46) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 3( 3) 29(32) 47(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 43(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 4(33) X(33) X(33) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MERIDA MX 34 46 12(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) MERIDA MX 50 4 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) COZUMEL MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COZUMEL MX 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COZUMEL MX 64 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) BELIZE CITY 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) 26(49) X(49) X(49) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) 20(62) X(62) X(62) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 12(24) X(24) X(24) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Tags: number speed wind hurricane

Hurricane Zeta Public Advisory Number 10

2020-10-27 03:47:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 270246 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Zeta Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020 ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS LASHING YUCATAN... ...ZETA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN A COUPLE OF HOURS WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 87.1W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF TULUM MEXICO ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta Allen to Progreso Mexico * Cozumel A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to Navarre Florida * Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 87.1 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is forecast during the next day or so. Zeta should turn toward the north Tuesday night, and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion is anticipated on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the northern Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of hours, move over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast in the watch area on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before Zeta makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. Weakening is forecast while Zeta moves over the Yucatan Peninsula late tonight and early Tuesday. Zeta is forecast to re-strengthen when it moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico later on Tuesday and be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). A Weatherflow station just south of Playa del Carmen reported sustained winds of 67 mph (108 km/h) with a gust to 87 mph (140 km/h). Another Weatherflow station in Cancun recently reported sustained winds of 60 mph (97 km/h) with a gust to 72 mph (116 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Fourchon LA to Dauphin Island AL including Lake Borgne...4-6 ft Intracoastal City LA to Port Fourchon LA including Vermilion Bay...2-4 ft Dauphin Island AL to Navarre FL including Mobile Bay and Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of Zetas track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the Cayman Islands. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain will be possible across western Cuba through Tuesday. An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf Coast Tuesday night, spreading north into the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday. The core of the heavy rains associated with Zeta will push northeast from eastern Louisiana, across southern Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia through Wednesday night, and through the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are already occurring within the Hurricane Warning area and should continue for the next several hours. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area on the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

Tags: number public advisory hurricane

Hurricane Zeta Forecast Advisory Number 10

2020-10-27 03:46:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 27 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 270246 TCMAT3 HURRICANE ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 0300 UTC TUE OCT 27 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA ALLEN TO PROGRESO MEXICO * COZUMEL A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO NAVARRE FLORIDA * LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...VERMILION BAY...PENSACOLA BAY...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA * WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 87.1W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 87.1W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 86.6W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.3N 88.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.1N 90.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.6N 91.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 29.1N 90.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 33.8N 85.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 38.5N 76.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 150SE 150SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 87.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Tags: number advisory forecast hurricane

Hurricane Zeta Public Advisory Number 9A

2020-10-27 00:55:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 262354 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 700 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020 ...LANDFALL OF ZETA EXPECTED IN A FEW HOURS WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTENDED SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 86.6W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from South of Tulum to Punta Allen Mexico on the east coast of Yucatan, and from west of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico on the north coast. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta Allen to Progreso Mexico * Cozumel A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to Navarre Florida * Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located by NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 86.6 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the north Tuesday night. A faster northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the northern Yucatan Peninsula tonight, move over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast in the watch area on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible before Zeta makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. Some weakening is likely while Zeta moves over the Yucatan Peninsula late tonight and early Tuesday. Zeta is forecast to strengthen again when it moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico later on Tuesday and be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Fourchon LA to Dauphin Island AL including Lake Borgne...4-6 ft Intracoastal City LA to Port Fourchon LA including Vermilion Bay...2-4 ft Dauphin Island AL to Navarre FL including Mobile Bay and Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of Zetas track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Cayman Islands, and central to western Cuba. An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf Coast Tuesday night, spreading north into the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday. The core of the heavy rains associated with Zeta will push northeast from eastern Louisiana across southern Mississippi, Alabama and northern Georgia through Wednesday night, and through the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula in a few hours. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area on the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

Tags: number public advisory hurricane