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Tropical Storm Zeta Graphics
2020-10-29 15:53:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Oct 2020 14:53:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Oct 2020 14:53:42 GMT
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Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-10-29 15:52:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 291452 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020 Zeta continues to move rapidly over land, and its maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 45 kt over the southeastern quadrant, with thew highest winds occuring over elevated locations. The wind gust factor continues to be higher than usual due to the interaction with land. Zeta continues to accelerate northeastward and is now moving near 055/42 kt. The cyclone should accelerate some more ahead of a strong 500-mb trough moving into the eastern United States over the next day or so. The official track forecast is in reasonable agreement with the global model predictions. The pressure pattern of Zeta is becoming distorted, and starting to take on an extratropical appearance as the cyclone begins to interact with a nearby frontal system. By this afternoon, the global models indicate that the system will become a frontal low and thus extratropical. Some short-term baroclinic strengthening is possible over the western Atlantic, but the guidance suggests that the system will become absorbed into the frontal zone in 36 hours or so. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Strong, damaging wind gusts, which could cause tree damage and power outages, will continue to spread eastward across portions of the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia through this afternoon due to Zeta's fast forward speed. 2. Through today, heavy rainfall is expected near and in advance of Zeta from portions of the Ohio Valley, into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. This rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 36.5N 81.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 30/0000Z 39.4N 73.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 30/1200Z 42.0N 60.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Zeta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2020-10-29 15:52:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 29 2020 375 FONT13 KNHC 291452 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM ZETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 1500 UTC THU OCT 29 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 1 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MONTAUK POINT 34 4 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLIP NY 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) TRENTON NJ 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PHILADELPHIA 34 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ATLANTIC CITY 34 40 X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) BALTIMORE MD 34 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) DOVER DE 34 63 X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) DOVER DE 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 48 X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) WASHINGTON DC 34 33 X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 75 X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) OCEAN CITY MD 34 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) OCEAN CITY MD 50 27 X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) OCEAN CITY MD 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PAX RIVER NAS 34 78 X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) PAX RIVER NAS 50 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) WALLOPS CDA 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) WALLOPS CDA 50 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 53 X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) RICHMOND VA 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) RICHMOND VA 50 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) DANVILLE VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DANVILLE VA 50 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NORFOLK NAS 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) OCEANA NAS VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ELIZABETH CTY 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) GREENSBORO NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GREENSBORO NC 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ROCKY MT NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FAYETTEVILLE 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) CHARLOTTE NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FLORENCE SC 34 37 X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) COLUMBIA SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AUGUSTA GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Zeta (AT3/AL282020)
2020-10-29 15:52:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ZETA STILL PRODUCING STRONG INLAND WINDS... As of 11:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 the center of Zeta was located near 36.5, -81.5 with movement NE at 48 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Zeta Public Advisory Number 20
2020-10-29 15:52:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 291452 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020 ...ZETA STILL PRODUCING STRONG INLAND WINDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.5N 81.5W ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM NE OF ASHEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 48 MPH...78 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located near latitude 36.5 North, longitude 81.5 West. Zeta is moving toward the northeast near 48 mph (78 km/h). An even faster northeastward motion is expected later today, followed by a rapid east-northeastward motion tonight and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move across the Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon, and emerge over the western Atlantic by tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Zeta is expected to become a non-tropical gale-force low later today. The low should become absorbed by a frontal system over the western Atlantic by Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 51 mph (82 km/h) were recently reported at the Greensboro Piedmont Triad International Airport. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. WIND: Damaging winds, especially in gusts, continue to spread across portions of South Carolina and North Carolina. These winds will spread into southeastern Virginia during the next few hours. RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of Zeta and along the track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and lower to middle Ohio Valley through Thursday. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in possible flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible today across the Carolinas and southern Virginia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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