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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-08-05 10:50:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 832 WTPZ41 KNHC 050850 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 Convection associated with the depression has increased through the early morning, but the system still appears to be sheared from the north. A pair of ASCAT passes between 03Z and 04Z revealed that the center of the depression is elongated and has reformed to the south, closer to the convection. The maximum believable winds in the ASCAT data were around 30 kt, and the initial intensity has been set at that value. Little change has been made to the track or intensity forecast, however confidence is low. The global and regional dynamical models all forecast that a disturbance to the west will develop later today and quickly become the dominant cyclone. This should cause the depression to dissipate as it becomes entangled in the other system's larger circulation. However, there is little agreement among the models as to when or where this will occur. On one hand, the GFS continues to insist that the depression will dissipate later this morning, while the UKMET shows two distinct cyclones through 96 hours. Further complicating matters, the close proximity of the two cyclones is affecting the trackers used to obtain track and intensity information from the dynamical models, and most of the dynamical tracker output can not be considered representative, especially at 48 h and beyond. Assuming the depression persists for at least a couple more days, the ECMWF and HWRF models appear to be the best compromise solutions, with both showing the depression accelerating northwestward between the disturbance to the west and a mid-level ridge to the east, before dissipating in 48-72 h. The NHC track forecast therefore leans most heavily on a blend of these models and the previous forecast track. The intensity forecast is based primarily on the statistical models, since the dynamical tracker output appears to be unrepresentative of the actual forecasts. Although the official forecast conservatively maintains the depression for 72 h, the cyclone could dissipate much sooner than currently indicated. Based on the forecast, any tropical-storm-force winds are expected to remain offshore the coast of Mexico. However, given the low confidence in both the track and intensity of the depression, interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor its progress in case the track shifts closer to the coast or the cyclone strengthens and grows larger than forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 13.0N 96.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 13.5N 98.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 14.6N 100.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 16.0N 103.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 17.5N 105.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 20.0N 111.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2018-08-05 10:50:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018 315 FOPZ11 KNHC 050850 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018 0900 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 100W 34 X 25(25) 5(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) 15N 100W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) X(25) X(25) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven-E (EP1/EP112018)
2018-08-05 10:50:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sun Aug 5 the center of Eleven-E was located near 13.0, -96.9 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Public Advisory Number 3
2018-08-05 10:50:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 100 WTPZ31 KNHC 050850 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 ...DEPRESSION A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 96.9W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of the tropical depression. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 96.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). The depression is expected to continue moving west-northwestward but at a faster forward speed for the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move parallel to but remain offshore of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2018-08-05 10:49:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018 128 WTPZ21 KNHC 050849 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018 0900 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018 INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 96.9W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 96.9W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 96.4W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.5N 98.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.6N 100.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.0N 103.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.5N 105.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.0N 111.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 96.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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