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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-08-05 16:38:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Aug 05 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 051438 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112017 900 AM MDT Sat Aug 05 2017 The tropical depression lost most of its deep convection overnight, but a small burst near the center has occurred this morning. Since that time, the center has become again nearly devoid of convection, but I can't yet rule out that one more burst could occur later today. The intensity has been held at 30 kt, based on earlier ASCAT data, but this could be generous given the lack of convection. No change has been made to the intensity forecast. Vertical wind shear remains high, and cloud-drift winds from GOES-W indicate that upper-level winds near the depression are between 40 and 50 kt from the east-northeast. The upper-level winds are not expected to lessen, and the available moisture should decrease steadily as the depression moves farther away from its parent disturbance and into a much drier environment. Combined, these factors should cause the depression to become a remnant low as early as this afternoon. The forward speed of the depression has slowed since the circulation is mostly limited to the low levels, and the initial motion estimate is 325/7 kt. During the overnight hours that the cyclone lacked deep convection, it moved slowly north or north-northwestward, so the track has been shifted to the right. Otherwise, no significant changes to the track forecast were required, and the cyclone, or its remnants, should be steered generally northwestward in light low-level steering flow until dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 19.6N 111.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 20.2N 111.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/1200Z 20.8N 112.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0000Z 21.0N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2017-08-05 16:38:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 05 2017 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 051438 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112017 1500 UTC SAT AUG 05 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven-E (EP1/EP112017)
2017-08-05 16:37:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION MOVING AWAY FROM SOCORRO ISLAND... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sat Aug 5 the center of Eleven-E was located near 19.6, -111.3 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Public Advisory Number 5
2017-08-05 16:37:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Aug 05 2017 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 051437 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112017 900 AM MDT Sat Aug 05 2017 ...DEPRESSION MOVING AWAY FROM SOCORRO ISLAND... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 111.3W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 111.4 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A continued northwest motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected until the system dissipates early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a remnant low later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Advisory Number 5
2017-08-05 16:37:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 05 2017 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 051437 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112017 1500 UTC SAT AUG 05 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 111.3W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 111.3W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 111.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.2N 111.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 20.8N 112.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 21.0N 112.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 111.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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