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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-two (AT2/AL222020)
2020-09-18 04:42:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 the center of Twenty-two was located near 22.0, -94.2 with movement NE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Twenty-two Public Advisory Number 2
2020-09-18 04:42:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 180242 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 94.2W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the progress of the depression. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Two was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 94.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow north-northeastward motion is expected through early Saturday, with a slow turn toward the north and then west anticipated over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Friday. The system could be near or at hurricane strength by Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas and the Gulf coast of Mexico over the weekend, generated by a combination of the depression and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Twenty-two Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-09-18 04:42:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 180242 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 INTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 94.2W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 94.2W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 94.2W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.9N 93.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.9N 93.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 24.8N 92.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 25.4N 93.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 25.6N 94.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 25.7N 94.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 26.1N 95.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 26.4N 96.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 94.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Twenty-two Graphics
2020-09-18 01:01:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 17 Sep 2020 23:01:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 17 Sep 2020 23:01:46 GMT
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Tropical Depression Twenty-two Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-09-18 01:00:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 172300 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Special Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 600 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the low pressure area over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has developed a sufficiently well-defined circulation, with SFMR wind data suggesting an intensity of about 30 kt. In addition, the associated convection is organized enough for SAB and TAFB to provide Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of 30 kt. Based on this information, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Twenty-Two. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 035/4. During the next 48 h or so, the cyclone should be steered slowly north-northeastward by a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas and northern Mexico. After that time, the global models are in good agreement that this trough will weaken and lift out to the northeast, with a weak mid-level ridge building to the north of the cyclone. This should result in a gradual turn toward the west at a continued slow forward speed. Although the cyclone is relatively close to land, the vast majority of the track guidance keeps the system offshore for the next five days. The official forecast will follow this scenario, with the forecast track being between the HCCA corrected consensus and the other consensus models. The large-scale models suggest that the cyclone will be in an environment of light to moderate vertical wind shear for the next several days. Some dry air entrainment may occur after 48 h. The bulk of the intensity guidance keeps the system below hurricane strength during the forecast period. The official intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance and shows the system peaking as a tropical storm, but it lies a little above the intensity consensus. As mentioned above, the cyclone is likely to stay offshore during the forecast period. Therefore, it is too early to tell which parts of the coast of the Gulf of Mexico will get wind, storm surge, and rain impacts from this system Key Messages: 1. The system is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm while moving slowly over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. 2. While it is too early to determine what areas could see direct wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts from this system, interests throughout the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system and future updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2300Z 21.9N 94.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 22.7N 94.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 23.8N 93.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 24.8N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 25.4N 92.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 20/0600Z 25.8N 93.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 26.1N 93.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 26.1N 95.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 25.6N 96.1W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg/Beven
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