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Tropical Depression Twenty-two Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-09-18 00:59:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 172259 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 2300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 INTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 94.3W AT 17/2300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 94.3W AT 17/2300Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 94.4W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.7N 94.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.8N 93.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.8N 93.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 25.4N 92.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 25.8N 93.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 26.1N 93.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 26.1N 95.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 25.6N 96.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 94.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-two (AT2/AL222020)
2020-09-18 00:59:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... As of 6:00 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 the center of Twenty-two was located near 21.9, -94.3 with movement NE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Twenty-two Public Advisory Number 1
2020-09-18 00:59:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 172259 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Special Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 600 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 94.3W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the progress of the depression. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CDT (2300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Two was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 94.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and it is expected to generally meander over the western Gulf of Mexico into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Twenty-two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-09-18 00:59:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 172259 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 2300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 AT 2300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 2(14) 1(15) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 13(26) 5(31) 2(33) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 24(40) 6(46) 3(49) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 3(15) 1(16) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 5(21) 3(24) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 6(25) 4(29) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 2(15) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 24(31) 10(41) 4(45) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) 2(15) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 3(13) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 8(27) 4(31) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 9(27) 5(32) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 3(16) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 4(15) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 21(27) 12(39) 6(45) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 3(16) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) MCALLEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 6(16) HARLINGEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 6(17) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 13(22) 8(30) 6(36) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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