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Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 40

2017-08-30 10:51:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 300851 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 400 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017 ...HARVEY MAKES LANDFALL JUST WEST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA... ...FLOODING RAINS DOUSING EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 93.4W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF CAMERON LOUISIANA ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch have been discontinued from High Island, Texas, westward. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Holly Beach Louisiana to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East of High Island Texas to west of Holly Beach Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of High Island Texas to Grand Isle Louisiana Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana. Please see warnings and other products issued by your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this life-threatening situation. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 12 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located just inland near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 93.4 West. Harvey is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A north-northeastward and then northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected through Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey will move across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast now that the center has crossed the coast, and Harvey is expected to become a tropical depression by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. Surface observations indicate that the estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches from southwestern Louisiana and the adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western Kentucky through Friday with isolated amounts up to 10 inches. While the threat of heavy rains has ended in the Houston/Galveston area, catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue in and around Houston eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week. The expected heavy rains spreading northeastward from Louisiana into western Kentucky may also lead to flash flooding and increased river and small stream flooding. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and products issued by your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this life-threatening situation. Elsewhere, the outer bands of Harvey are expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of the central and eastern Gulf States and 2 to 4 inches farther north into parts of the Tennessee Valley through Friday. These rains may lead to flooding concerns across these areas. A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Holly Beach to Morgan City...2 to 4 ft San Luis Pass to west of Holly Beach incl. Galveston Bay...1 to 3 ft Morgan City to Grand Isle...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the area of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the warning area along the coast and are likely to persist through today. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are still affecting the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight over parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, southern Alabama, and southeast Arkansas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 40

2017-08-30 10:51:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 30 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 300851 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0900 UTC WED AUG 30 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT STENNIS MS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 1 4( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BATON ROUGE LA 34 8 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MORGAN CITY LA 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 19 14(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) LAFAYETTE LA 34 33 4(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) NEW IBERIA LA 34 24 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) SHREVEPORT LA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 27 3(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) LAKE CHARLES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAMERON LA 34 60 6(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) JASPER TX 34 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) KOUNTZE TX 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GALVESTON TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm Harvey Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

2017-08-30 10:51:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 30 Aug 2017 08:51:11 GMT

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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 40

2017-08-30 10:50:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 30 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 300850 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0900 UTC WED AUG 30 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND STORM SURGE WATCH HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM HIGH ISLAND TEXAS WESTWARD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HOLLY BEACH LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO WEST OF HOLLY BEACH LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. PLEASE SEE WARNINGS AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 93.4W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 93.4W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 93.5W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 30.4N 92.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 140SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 31.7N 92.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 33.3N 90.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 35.0N 88.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 37.5N 84.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 93.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)

2017-08-30 07:42:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA STILL BEING DELUGED WITH HEAVY RAINS... ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NEAR BEAUMONT AND PORT ARTHUR TEXAS... As of 1:00 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 the center of Harvey was located near 29.2, -93.5 with movement NE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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